I wouldn’t put much stock in last nights results. It’s a caucus, not an Australian Ballot. Your vote is not your own and you are expected to surrender to the forces who appear the strongest. Last night that was Cruz, who had a solid ground operation there. But keep in mind that Huckabee and Santorum both won in Iowa too...and where is President Santorum or President Huckabee?
Iowa is a nice freak show but it’s not an accurate predictor of anything.
Iowa is about 50/50 as a predictor over the last couple decades. The biggest difference is that both Huck and Santorum were "all in" on Iowa and no significant organization beyond. Cruz is well-funded and organized - NH may not be a great state for him (also about a 50/50 track record there, though) but he'll be strong in SC, NV, and many of the so-called "SEC Primary" states.
Last night should be a stark reminder that no matter how much the system is broken and needs changing, having a solid organization and ground game still wins close elections.