The Turks have been given access to 60-90 of our tactical nukes. They’re under US control except in time of war, but how long would our security forces be able to protect them if the Turks made a concerted effort to get at them? The US has a lot of assets on Incirlik where those nukes are located.
http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/turkey/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B61_nuclear_bombhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B61_nuclear_bomb
"Turkey continues to host approximately 60 to 70 U.S. tactical nuclear weapons on its territory at Incirlik Air Base."
This makes Incirlik AFB a prime first strike target for Russia. Therefore I'd bet Putin has a number of rapid launch missiles targeting Incirlik and plans to shoot down any aircraft capable of carrying a B61, if it appears to be leaving Turkish airspace.