Posted on 11/16/2015 7:50:41 PM PST by Citizen Zed
Marco Rubio 48%, Donald Trump 19%, Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 6%, Chris Christie 4%, John Kasich 1%...
Step 1: construct prices from the back, lay, and last transaction odds, in the Betfair/PredictIt order book. We take the average of the highest price traders are willing to buy a marginal share and the lowest price people are willing to sell a marginal share, unless the differential is too large or does not exist.
Step 2: correct for historical bias and increased uncertainty in constructed prices near $0 or $1. We raise all of the constructed prices to a pre-set value depending on the domain.
Step 3: normalized to equal 100% for any mutually exclusive set of outcomes.
Polling data: Courtesy of HuffPost's Pollster
(Excerpt) Read more at predictwise.com ...
Not a bit.
These traders remind me of media with their predictions.
Absolutely NOT.
Rubio is not ready for prime time. Too whiney.
Cruz is the more likely candidate to get there.
I wouldn’t put money against Trump
Dr. Carson just isn’t my favorite. He’s a brilliant surgeon, but that’s where my accolades end.
So, it looks like I don’t agree with any of your choices.
That is fabricated nonsense. Trump is at 42% and rising with the border crises. Rubio in an amnesty freak. He is on the wrong side of the conservatives. With his horrible credit card theft he is totally finished. Rubio in RINIO. He isn’t wort spit.
Agreed
And it should be noted, 42% with his younger, Cuban clone Ted Cruz in the race. I think that if you asked Cruz supporters most of them would have Trump as their second choice.
If The Donald gets to consistently above 50% by January the nominations locked up.
That needs to happen so that he can turn his gun on the HiliaB*tch
My money’s on Dewey
I can’t for the life of me understand where these polls and articles are getting their numbers/information.
-JT
And who thinks any reliable information can come from huffpost?
Rubio has orfly high numbers for a guy no-one likes.
Rubio at 48%? Is that percentage of people that despise the bastard?
can I take a bet against Rubio
This is one Ted Cruz supporter who would NOT have Trump as my second choice. 5th or 6th perhaps, but not second. Just no.
saw this prediction on Spanish network......and thats not a slam at Hispanics. LOL...
Rubio may get to be VP but not pres...thats gonna be Trumps job.
Says WHO ..??
Pole numbers ARE USED TO SWAY PEOPLE .. GET IT ..??
Well, if Trump gets the nomination .. HE WILL NOT BE PICKING RUBIO AS VP.
MY BEST GUESS.
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