Overconfidence sometimes creeps in if you habitually engage in activity, and are considered and expert in it.
My great-grandfather was a water rat who thought nothing of hopping into his boat in Hull and sailing to Boston for the day. In 1881, a squall came up, the boat sank, and he drowned.
google “two missing jupiter florida teens” to see what overconfidence with the arrogance and stupidity of youth can do.
I know. A family friend of ours went out fishing, with another man, in a small boat, about 10 years ago. They both drowned when a non-unexpected storm blew up. Some people are more prone to risk-taking, too.