Fire behavior modeling is very complex. Not only are there geographic considerations (cover type, for example) but there are resource management , command, and coordination (manpower, aviation, equipment and apparatus...), reconnaissance, budget and funding, partnership, prior treatments, and a host of regulatory considerations to consider.
Just the geographic (spatial) factors alone are a labyrinth of elements including meteorological conditions, slope and aspect, vegetation type, structure and density, soil conditions, water availability.
I don’t know much about it - but I know it’s VERY complicated to predict what’ll happen.
Indeed, and that is why I started this thread about it. Modeling fire activity and behaviors has long been a difficult task but the software referenced in the article seems to be quite accurate in its output and so it bears looking into.
I live next to a National Forest at the moment and fires are a constant worry. Software such as this should be discussed and promoted if indeed it has progressed to the point where it can accurately map what a fire’s actions are likely to be.
If I need to evacuate some day because it turns out I am directly in the path of a fire, the more time I have to grab some essentials and expeditiously egress the better off I will be.
Software such as this would be incredibly valuable for this and likely save lives especially as the modeling algorithms are refined over time for more realistic scenarios.