Central Asia Stuck Between A Sinking Russia And A Dominant China

Forbes ^ | Dec 18, 2014 | Paul Coyer

[Ray76]

Central Asia, stuck between Russia, the dominant power of yesterday, whose cultural influence in the region remains strong even as its economy implodes and its political clout increasingly plays second fiddle to China, and China, the dominant power of tomorrow, whose targeted economic power is increasingly shaping the choices of Central Asian leaders and reshaping the region as a whole, is seeking other options. A story that is being lost in the attention paid to the new “Great Game” between Russia and China for dominance in Central Asia is how the Central Asian governments themselves don’t wish to be dominated, are unwilling to be tied too closely to either Russia or China, and are beginning to push back against such an eventuality.

[Opinionated Blowhard]

God help any of the poor suckers who thought that the US was going to stick around and act as a counterbalance or stabilizing influence.

[Veto!]

From the article: This desire for partners other than Moscow and Beijing is occurring at a time when feelings of insecurity are also growing in the region due to the withdrawal of NATO and the US from Afghanistan, with fears that the resulting power vacuum will be filled by more extreme forms of Islam, either on the part of a resurgent Taliban or greater influence on the part of ISIS, which the secular Central Asian leaders fear is appealing to a small but growing radical segment of their societies (and some Central Asians are known to be fighting with ISIS in Iraq and Syria).

The US should be on a major diplomatic offensive to establish good and workable relations with the "Stans," to keep peace in the area. We already screwed up Afghanistan, but the other stans don't seem to be as primitively islamic and conceivably could be a peaceful buffer zone.

Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan

[PGR88]

Russia isn’t sinking.

[SeeSharp]

God help any of the poor suckers who thought that the US was going to stick around and act as a counterbalance or stabilizing influence.

Your point is well made, but after the Andijan incident it would have taken a much stronger presidential administration than Bush's to stand up to the political pressure to end the relationship.

[elcid1970]

All of those `Stans were under Soviet rule until 1991. As a result they are still relatively secularized compared to Afghanistan & stand a chance of real progress.

I was at Camp Stronghold Freedom in Uzbekistan in 2004. We regarded Uzbeks as similar to us, wanting good jobs & security. They were highly suspicious of Afghans & seemed to regard Islam as a skin ailment, especially the young women.

Our evil State Department IMO deliberately roiled the waters over Andijon & got us kicked out.

[SeeSharp]

Our evil State Department IMO deliberately roiled the waters over Andijon & got us kicked out.

Agreed. But let's not forget the Democrats and the whole international left were stirring that pot pretty hard too. The loss of Uzbekistan hurts. They are the key to the entire region.

[SaxxonWoods]

Title should read:

Central Asia Stuck Between A Sinking Russia And A temporarily rising China.

[elcid1970]

Agreed. Uzbekistan is the most populous of the `stans.

Uzbeks I spoke to didn’t care for Karimov & thought he has a personality cult going (not like that dear leader in Turkmenistan) but at the time it was said, “He’s an SOB but he’s our SOB”. If only.

Most of our stuff was transshipped by rail into UZ. USAF & DHL brought the sensitive items. Uzbeks were still Russia-leaning when I left; they all spoke Russian and many spoke excellent English.

UZ could have been steered into a Western orbit but the geography is too forbidding for the only double landlocked country in the world.

[Undecided 2012]

Hey Ray, great article. Do you think we should send it to Obama or just let him wait until next year on the news when they cover muzzies butchering people?

[Veto!]

They were highly suspicious of Afghans & seemed to regard Islam as a skin ailment, especially the young women….Our evil State Department IMO deliberately roiled the waters over Andijon & got us kicked out.

You must have had a very interesting time there. I had to look up Andijon -- sounds truly gruesome.

I admire the gorgeous horses from Ferghana Valley, known here as Akhal Tekkes. I see that the Uzbeks recently presented one to the president of China. A cultural thing, they say. Apparently they didn't send one to the slummy Obamas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XjjybtW3gg&spfreload=10

Two thousand years ago, the Chinese stole these horses in great numbers from the Uzbeks, used them for war horses. So now the Uzbeks are giving them to the Chinese….we should really try to forge some cultural links with strategically placed countries too…..is that too hard for John Kerry?

[elcid1970]

Whatever happened in Andijon was after I left in 2004, but that year IMU terrorists tried to blow up buses in Tashkent but were killed instead.

I went to Samarkand twice on road trips. Saw a restored Catholic church, the Registan, local rug factory, & dinner at a Russian restaurant. Heroic Karimov billboards here & there.

One of our pereboichiks was a Ferghana native, nice lady. We knew Uzbekistan was a much better place to be than further south; our generator mechanics got sent to Mazer-i-Sharif at the Jordanian hospital. Very different experience.

I still think UZ prefers Russian sphere of influence to Chinese. They don’t border PRC but can see the Tien Shan mountain range from where the Amu Darya & Syr Darya rivers originate.

Aralskii Morye, that’s a separate tragedy in itself.