Posted on 10/04/2014 10:01:00 AM PDT by scouter
I have received a number of FReepmails asking for an update on my projections, in light of recent news. Here it is.
Please read and understand the following notes:
Scouter Ebola Projection Model Version 2.1 - Ebola Case Projections
*********************************************************
Projection Parameters
*********************************************************
Country: All Countries
Run Date/Time: 10/04/2014 at 12:32:03
Model: DTR Model
Start Date: 9/1/2014
End Date: 10/1/2014
Reported cases represent 100% of the true epidemic size
New Cases per Day at End of Period: 172
Rate of Increase per Day: 2.35%
*********************************************************
Weekly for the Next 8 Weeks
Date Date Cases Deaths Daily New Cases
========== ==================== ==================== ==================== ====================
10/01/2014 7,491 3,439 175 71
10/08/2014 8,838 4,058 206 95
10/15/2014 10,437 4,794 246 113
10/22/2014 12,338 5,671 292 135
10/29/2014 14,598 6,716 347 161
11/05/2014 17,287 7,961 413 192
11/12/2014 20,489 9,448 492 229
11/19/2014 24,303 11,222 587 273
End of Month for the Next Year from the End Date
Date Date Cases Deaths Daily New Cases
========== ==================== ==================== ==================== ====================
10/31/2014 15,320 7,051 277 110
11/30/2014 33,146 15,547 844 405
12/31/2014 73,924 35,305 1,893 923
01/31/2015 165,567 80,387 4,261 2,109
02/28/2015 344,116 169,366 8,892 4,453
03/31/2015 776,114 387,249 20,136 10,205
04/30/2015 1,710,309 863,619 44,533 22,805
05/31/2015 3,880,621 1,981,314 101,380 52,413
06/30/2015 8,596,752 4,431,396 225,240 117,407
07/31/2015 19,601,541 10,193,372 514,950 270,445
08/31/2015 44,788,229 23,473,373 1,179,439 623,547
09/30/2015 99,825,291 52,668,275 2,634,170 1,400,539
10/31/2015 228,894,782 121,502,640 6,051,399 3,234,010
I need to find a bank that gives 2.35% rate per day ...
Ebola ping.
If you want on or off my Ebola ping list, just FReepmail me.
Looking at the Oct. 1st "roadmap" report, using the official (and patently absurd) data, daily new cases among all three W. Africa countries hit 133.3 on Sept. 28th. The report is here.
Scouter Ebola Projection Model Version 2.1 - Ebola Case Projections
*********************************************************
Projection Parameters
*********************************************************
Country: All Countries
Run Date/Time: 10/04/2014 at 13:15:41
Model: DTR Model
Start Date: 9/1/2014
End Date: 10/1/2014
Reported cases represent 100% of the true epidemic size
New Cases per Day at End of Period: 172
Rate of Increase per Day: 2.35%
*********************************************************
Weekly for the Next 8 Weeks
Date Cases Deaths Daily New Cases Daily New Deaths
========== ==================== ==================== ==================== ====================
10/01/2014 7,491 3,439 175 71
10/08/2014 8,838 4,058 206 95
10/15/2014 10,437 4,794 246 113
10/22/2014 12,338 5,671 292 135
10/29/2014 14,598 6,716 347 161
11/05/2014 17,287 7,961 413 192
11/12/2014 20,489 9,448 492 229
11/19/2014 24,303 11,222 587 273
End of Month for the Next Year from the End Date
Date Cases Deaths Daily New Cases Daily New Deaths
========== ==================== ==================== ==================== ====================
10/31/2014 15,320 7,051 277 110
11/30/2014 33,146 15,547 844 405
12/31/2014 73,924 35,305 1,893 923
01/31/2015 165,567 80,387 4,261 2,109
02/28/2015 344,116 169,366 8,892 4,453
03/31/2015 776,114 387,249 20,136 10,205
04/30/2015 1,710,309 863,619 44,533 22,805
05/31/2015 3,880,621 1,981,314 101,380 52,413
06/30/2015 8,596,752 4,431,396 225,240 117,407
07/31/2015 19,601,541 10,193,372 514,950 270,445
08/31/2015 44,788,229 23,473,373 1,179,439 623,547
09/30/2015 99,825,291 52,668,275 2,634,170 1,400,539
10/31/2015 228,894,782 121,502,640 6,051,399 3,234,010
I hate it when that happens! Thanks again.
What numbers do you predict for the U.S.?
scouter, please add me to your ping list.
Thanks, and thanks for this data.
Does Liberia even have a population of 174 million?
Answer:
.
“Uhmmmm No...”
Medical emergency onboard with a passenger vomiting.
They have to wait for the CDC to come interview the person before they can leave.
Consider travel plans carefully.
Update: CDC just boarded the plane in HAZMAT suits
Prayers. . .
Under #5 above in the original post- ...”In other words, the model projects that in Liberia alone, there would be over 174,000,000 cases by the end of October, 2015. Obviously that can’t happen because Liberia doesn’t have anywhere near that many people. “
prayers up for your wife!
It was a black male. CDC masked him and took him away. Now interviewing patient. No communication to the other passengers yet.
The game of Ebola Roulette continues...
*click* spin *click* spin *click* spin BANG!
Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!
Bring Out Your Dead
Were gonna need
a bigger cart!
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the Bring Out Your Dead ping list (formerly the Ebola ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the Bring Out Your Dead threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
Thanks.
Seconded.
Please let us know as soon as there is enough ground truth to make a guesstimate meaningful.
Prayers up for your wife. Fiund this ....
Custom's agent's now onboard in gloves and masks removing overhead cargo.
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