While the chart is interesting, the increase in the number of Ebola deaths will not continue at its current rate, but if it does, it means we are all dead two and a half years.
“...the increase in the number of Ebola deaths will not continue at its current rate...”
Why is that?
Not all of us...30 per cent are surviving the disease including an unknown number of lesser sick almost silent infected persons.
I expect three things to change the slope of the straight lines on the semi-log graph.
1. In the short term, once the African cities explode, the straight lines will continue, and perhaps even tilt upward (faster spread) a little bit, because the virus will have a temporarily unlimited supply of new victims in easy reach. This will accelerate the spread, but it can't do so for too long without reaching a temporary limit.
It is the same effect as a bacteria colony in a Petri dish -- until the media is completely covered (i.e. until each city is saturated with victims), the colony will grow exponentially. When all the media is covered (i.e. when each city is full of sick/dead people), the rate of new cases will drop in that city.
But as soon as it jumps to a new city, the cycle will repeat. Given enough cities (a half dozen will do nicely), the overall cumulative spread will be pretty much straight in line with what I drew, and continue into 2015 largely unabated.
2. In the mid-term, Africa will be fully involved, Europe and the Middle East will be in trouble, and we'll be fighting localized outbreaks in the Western Hemisphere. I'm less worried about spread in the continental U.S. than I am in South and Central America, where living and sanitation conditions are not substantially better than in Africa. Here in the U.S. we have a chance of containing outbreaks, as long as it remains non-airborne. Elsewhere....?
During this time the slope will decrease (slower rate of new cases), but it won't level out until all the regions of the world with lousy sanitation and living conditions are involved. There is simply nothing to stop the spread into and through those regions.
3. Eventually it'll drop down to a background level, having taken out as many victims as it can. Whether that's 50 million or a few billion, I can't begin to tell you. But I believe it'll be between those lower and upper limits.
Yes. In two and a half years, we are all dead.
This is Captain Trips on steroids.
The virus is capable of boring through 12 inches of reinforced titanium plate.