Sounds like a reasonable analyses. We’ll see how accurate it is soon enough.
It’s possible there will be a better treatment/preventive/cure in that time frame.
It’s possible it will go airborne.
It’s possible sanitation in the Western World isn’t anywhere near as good as we think it is.
We have lots of pockets of immigrants that brought their third world attitudes with them, so I don’t think our sanitation is as good as we think it is. Even our hospitals are hard pressed to keep MRSA and other things contained.