(Actually, I’d really like to siphon the money for Moonbeam’s monumentally-absurd choo-choo into any water project, ASAP. His dad oversaw much infrastructure development as governor, so pipsqueak kid wants an enduring legacy, too. “The Moonbeam Express.”)
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Last time I lived in California was when Pat Brown was governor. California still knew something about water projects. They hadn’t yet become part of some ancient Martian civilization. Still, I must say that with all the California do gooder billionaires — I’m puzzled that none have thought to put any time effort and money into solving California’s very solvable water problems. Bill Gates up in Washington has seen fit to buy some water companies but that’s about it.
Practically:
a) what is the likelihood that this ever gets built?
The stuff will all be built when three things come together. It looks more likely that all three will come together.
1.) A disaster to motivate people.
1.) The disaster
The model for this is the Hoover dam. The Hoover dam was originally conceived of as a flood control solution to the great colorado River flood of 1905 that created the Salton Sea. Only later did the Hoover Dam include a role as a provider of water and power. In 1919, the initial cost estimates for the dam were completed. In 1924, the preliminary designs were completed. The contract to construct the Dam was awarded in 1931. The dam was completed in 1936.
This narrative — 1905-1936 — puts about 30 years between the 1905 disaster and completion of the dam in 1936. That’s how long it will likely take for all the stuff I talk about to be done.
But first we need a real disaster. It looks like the drought may do it. The metric there is likely the Hoover dam. I always watch the dam levels there. Dam levels have been falling fairly steadily for about a decade. The droughts can go on for many decades. The first big hit will come when the water falls too low to support the electrical generation plants. That’s likely part of the reason you’re seeing solar power plants sprout up all over Arizona and southern Nevada. That power will be needed when the electric turbines in the dam can’t spin. While its as of now unlikely that the dams will completely dry up. Its currently very likely that the water levels on the dam will fall too low for power generation. But if the rains don’t come in sufficient quantities then of course water becomes the issue. That’s the disaster that will provoke the big solution. Its the come to Jesus moment.
We have not reached the catastrophe. The southwest/california droughts are problems but they are not yet catastrophes. The patches and band aids so far have been sufficient to mitigate the problems. The patches and band aids in this case are the authorities efforts to mitigate the problem by steadily squeezing down water use.
So we’re talking about 30 years after the disaster which hasn’t happened yet but seems ever more likely in the next decade.
2.) Big scientific and technological gains.
Its important to understand that between 1905 and 1936 an enormous technological revolution occurred. The Hoover dam could not have been built when the disaster occurred in 1905.
imho the three big technological gains on the scale of technological gains between 1905-1931 will be a.) lftr thorium reactors which cut the cost of electricity to 1/4-1/10 the cost of current lowest cost coal. b.) Printed pipelines that can extrude pipelines directly from the soil through which they pass. c.) versatile and durable and cheap semipermeable membranes that allow water and keep out salt at room temperature and pressure.
I think all three of these will happen in the next 15-20 years.
3.) The kind of expansionary vision that comes with the creation of great new wealth—which in turn comes as a result of large scientific and technological gains.
The result of collapsing the cost of energy will be a fantastic world wide explosion of wealth. That’s going to happen in three stages. First the fracking revolution will make the USA energy independent by 2019. This will do stuff like cause the federal budget to balance and strengthen the dollar. But the cost of oil will remain high. After 2020, natural gas trains trucks and buses and electric cars will slowly and then more quickly drain away demand for oil and therefor force the price of oil down. Lower gas prices always cause an big rise in wealth. What creates a whole new technological era however that expands the vision of the nation will be lftr thorium reactors. These will collapse the cost of energy across the board. This will release the kind of surplus wealth that will enable space colonization and turning the deserts green. This will come in maybe 20 years.
Once again, its important to understand that there was in the USA a fantastic explosion of wealth between 1905-1931 like has not been seen since maybe the 1950-60’s. But even the 50’s-60’s pale in comparison to the earlier explosion. A closer parallel would be what’s happened to the Chinese over the last 30 years. The fantastic increase of Chinese wealth and power has caused them to put up water projects all over the world.
That will happen to the USA again in a giant pulse in another decade or two.
It will be fascinating to watch!