Why wouldn’t Frank Guinta in NH-01 qualify under your rules? Isn’t there a significant difference between him and his opponent (gay social liberal RINO Dan Innis)? The NH-01 is certainly competitive in the general (Guinta won it in 2010 and was narrowly defeated in 2012, but he should win back what is by most measures the most Republican congressional district in New England). And Innis has been competitive in his fundraising and has quite a bit of support, even from confused conservatives (he’s one of those self-proclaimed gay Tea Partiers, don’t you know?).
my sense was that Guinta will win the primary easily, but perhaps I haven’t researched it well.
“In reality, though, Innis has been a dud. He has been in the race since October and there is no urgency or sense of momentum. Guinta, his primary opponent, has been able to get away with ignoring him because everyone else is ignoring him. In a retail politics state, Innis has not been out on the hustings as he should be. He is also not raising money, and it didn’t help that his finance director left to work for Scott Brown. Innis has a name ID in the district of just 21 percent.”
http://www.wmur.com/political-scoop/state-of-the-race-1st-congressional-district/25719658
there is no primary polling
http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2014_spring_congapp041714.pdf
Marilinda Garcia is doing well, could she beat Lambert?