“I still think Bama is better than Auburn (despite the loss)”
Look to home field advantage. Auburn and Alabama are barely better than 8-4 Texas A&M @TAM. They both got to play LSU at home and beat LSU, and LSU got to play TAM at home, and handily beat them.
Kickers are part of the team...The two last significant games Bama has lost (LSU and Auburn), have mainly been due to their kickers missing so many field goals.