US oil production increased by 1 million barrels @ day in 2012. Oil production increases in similiar range are expected for the next 4-5 years. Leading to US energy independence.
These are the circumstances that increased US federal government revenues by 200 billion in last year. This reduced federal deficits to an expected 640 billion—with similiar decreases expected for the next several years.
As well rising US oil production decreases the US trade deficit which increases the value of the dollar—which will reduce the cost of oil.
Lower US borrowing and a rising dollar and lower oil costs ...all mean that for the next five years or so the price of gold will go down.
In all seriousness, I hope you are more vigilant and less trusting than your post leads me to believe.
You’re dead right that all the fracking is taking place on private lands. And further that the fracking revolution is happening DESPITE every effort of the Obama people. You’re right too that there are plenty of interests out there that would like to throttle the fracking revolution.
Nevertheless the fracking revolution happening now. The fracking revolution is spreading. And its virtually unstoppable.
The only thing that could possibly stop the fracking revolution is price.
That too is well nigh in the cards.
So yeah you’re right about the known unknowns. For example, the Tesla electric car could well expand production exponentially over the next couple years. The guy who leads Tesla —Elon Musk— is in the same league of business leader as Bill Gates or Steve Jobs. So absolutely that is in the cards. Start shifting a million or more cars a year and the demand for oil declines—so does the price.
More directly in the cards is T Boone Picken’s famous Picken plan to shift large vehicles over to natural gas. That is already weaning large numbers of large vehicles off oil.
Electric cars and natural gas vehicles plus higher mpg vehicles plus high gas prices —mean that over the next decade—demand for oil is going down.
Join rising oil production with falling demand and you get lower oil prices.
Fracking oil is expensive. Baaken oil is said to need oil at 80@ barrel to be profitable. Oil prices are likely to fall below 80@barrel sometime in the next two years.
Another large chunk of US oil fracking needs at least 60@barrel to be profitable. I think the price of oil will reach 60@ barrel by 2017 at the very latest.
Oil prices below $60@barrel will seriously reduce US drilling and production—unless drillers can figure out how to bring the cost of production down substantially in the next two years. They’re working on costs and some breakthroughs have already been announced. But its definitely a race against time and the inevitable fall in oil prices.
So its not a sure bet that marginally lower oil prices will substantially slash oil drilling and oil production.