Posted on 03/09/2013 5:35:57 AM PST by Kevmo
Översätt]
Oilprice.com links COT and new energy breakthrough
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In Why Are the Big Financial Institutions Selling Oil BIG?, Oilprice.com author Torkel Nyberg links oil and low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR) in his analysis of a recent Commitment of Traders (COT) reports.
It is a provocative thesis of his that the largest of corporations and financial institutions have inside knowledge of a breakthrough in LENR ....
From the article: At some point during the fall of 2010 there was a large policy shift in hedging crude oil on the NYMEX futures exchange by the big banks and the oil companies. Up to that point the hedgers of crude have largely been the producers as they want to hedge their production against future price movements. On the buy side there was the big financial institutions (Swap Dealers = JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, etc), and the money managers (large pension funds, hedge funds, etc.), that speculate in a price increase.
But during the fall of 2010 this state of affairs changed. From being net-long 200 thousand contracts, the banks became net-short in a couple of months. Their selling has since continued. And now, by March 2013, they are net-short 300 thousand contracts (300 million barrels of oil = $30 billion). See the green lines in the chart above.
At the same time the producers have liquidated their 200 thousand contract short position (blue line above). They are no longer hedging as they used to. And they’ve done it in a very consistent way. It looks almost unreal, buying an equal amount of contracts each month for two years.
During this time the banks have consistently been using a strategy to buy weakness and sell strength during their massive net-selling. As if their strategy was to build a huge short position and at the same time stabilize price. The conclusion is that the banks are now net-short about 300 thousand contracts at a price about $90-$95.
On the buy side the money managers went from being neutral by fall of 2010 to being net-long 250 thousand contracts as of today. This is of course the big funds, and in the end pensions and savings. They are now net-long oil and of course net-long all the producers (oil stocks).
Researching this strategy change has given very little information. One article though, from July 2012, touches on the subject. No answers and no explanations though. [Insidefutures.com]
Following the Commitments of Traders Report (CoT) does however reveal a great deal of information. The standard report shows the commercial traders, (oil companies and banks), large speculators (big funds) and smaller speculators (the rest). The disaggregated report also shows the position of banks and producers respectively. Both these reports are shown in the graph above. The combination does tell us that something is going on, but what?
Something real is going on, but what?
Continue reading here.
The realization of Peak Oil looms large in any examination of the oil business, and will figure in any industry moves.
But as incremental successes in experimental new energy cells from LENR accelerate, the potential Black Swan of cold fusion should not be far from any energy study either, and we are beginning to see that here.
The Cold Fusion/LENR Ping List
Discussion of this article on Vortex-L:
http://www.mail-archive.com/vortex-
http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/coldfusion/index?tab=articles
Bump, to see how this thread is responded to ...
Same bump. Lenr maybe oil investor part doubt it
If such a breakthrough were close, do you really think that many people could know about it and keep it under wraps?
The location of Rossi’s secret robotic factory has been found....it’s in his imagination. Break throughs expected soon.
Not to mention that the writer is still talking about “Peak Oil” - just how much of this story is pure crap anyway?
How about we try Occam’s Razor?
We are in a de facto Depression and another wave down (with an accompanying decrease in demand) is overdue. On top of that, frakking is creating a ceiling on World Oil prices at about $100 a barrel. OPEC is scared spitless of an energy-independent North America.
All the risk is on the downside, so that’s where the futures contracts are biased.
you think any downward pressure on the price of oil is due to an imminent cold fusion breakthrough.
In the meantime, outside of la-la land, oil and gas extraction is setting records all over the place.
That makes a reasonable case for a ceiling, but not for a big-fund money block heading in the short direction.
Besides, Occham’s Razor works for LENR as well. After all, the Anomalous Heat Effect has been replicated more than 14,000 times. The big money knows it’s important enough to verify.
The information advantage is what guys like this live for.
Yes. Some will consider it a black swan event, others will think it was incredibly obvious.
Once again, the Wright brothers provide a good parallel in history.
Ah, I see you are a student of the Douglas Adams version of Occam’s Razor.
The simplest explanation is - IT’S A MIRACLE, therefore it is, QED. ;^)
I dunno who Doug Adams is or was. I’m a student of Richard Feynman’s inductive postulate. After all, he got a Nobel Prize in Nuke Physics, what did your guy get?
Fact trumps theory with the greenhouse effect: A case ...
http://www.tallbloke.wordpress.com/ 2012/ 05/ 16/ carl-brehmer-fact-trumps-theory-with-the-greenhouse-effect-a-case-stu dy/ - View by Ixquick Proxy- Highlight
May 16, 2012 ... Carl Brehmer: Fact trumps theory with the greenhouse effect: A case study ... The field of climate science should heed the words of the late great physicist Richard Feynman: ... If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.” ...
Douglas Adams wrote science fiction based comedic novels. I was paraphrasing a joke he made in one of his Dirk Gently novels.
I had no idea Richard Feynman had weighed in on LENR. I would love to see a link to his published thoughts on the matter.
As to oil futures, the big players look at foreseeable events during the term of their contracts, and LENR still seems to be almost as far off as High Temperature Fusion. When a working scalable prototype is put on line, then you will be able to stake this claim.
The fact that their position also guards against your Black Swan works out very well for them if you are correct. I personally would be willing to entertain a friendly wager on commercial success of LENR within the next five years. Care to put your money where you think Feynman’s mouth is?
Douglas Adams wrote science fiction based comedic novels.
***You base your inductive reasoning on fiction & comedy novels? What kind of bozo nonsense is this?
I personally would be willing to entertain a friendly wager on commercial success of LENR within the next five years.
***5 years? What kind of odds are you giving? If someone ties up their money for 5 years in a typical investment, they’d want to double their money at least.
Care to put your money where you think Feynman’s mouth is?
***I have already put my money where my mouth is.
How I Made Money from Cold Fusion
Saturday, January 23, 2010 12:28:49 PM · by Kevmo · 28 replies ·
Exclusive Article for Free Republic | 1/23/10 | Kevmo
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2435697/posts
The fact is, if I’m really convinced this is going to happen then I would be following this big-money approach to investing. I have already been in touch with my investment counselor about shorting oil stocks. Perhaps you can give me better terms? At a certain point, such financial transactions become illegal.
No, I based my joke on Douglas Adams. You apparently base your jokes on Alan W. Livingston’s children’s TV character.
So you’ve shorted oil? What options or futures contracts did you buy? How many? What time horizon? I am sure we would all love to follow your lucrative investment strategy, or did Mr. Livingston give you guidance on this as well?
As for a wager, are you suggesting that you will win if a commercial LENR pays its investors double their original investment within 5 years? I would accept those terms, and friendly long term wagers are always even odds so both parties have the same amount reserved.
No, I based my joke on Douglas Adams. You apparently base your jokes on Alan W. Livingston’s children’s TV character.
***No, you based your REASONING on a fictional chracter. And then you move even further outlandish by claiming that I base jokes on some TV character I’ve never heard of. Basically, you’re showing yourself to be a loon.
So you’ve shorted oil?
***Not yet.
What options or futures contracts did you buy? How many? What time horizon?
***As I said, I have not done it yet. But the investment strategy would have turned out to be wise if LENR hits big, right? Or are you utterly incapable of processing conditional reasoning... my bet is you are incapable of addressing the conditional.
I am sure we would all love to follow your lucrative investment strategy, or did Mr. Livingston give you guidance on this as well?
***Who is Mr. Livingston? Why would I want anyone to follow my lucrative investment strategy if it dilutes my position? It’s like the guy who came out with the “dogs of the dow” approach. As soon as it was published, it became a cliche and wouldn’t work any more.
As for a wager, are you suggesting that you will win if a commercial LENR pays its investors double their original investment within 5 years?
***Why don’t you just read what I wrote instead of asking what I am suggesting? Do you have some sort of reading comprehension problem?
I would accept those terms, and friendly long term wagers are always even odds so both parties have the same amount reserved.
***Then there’s no reason to proceed with your bet. I won better than 3.5-to-1 odds on Intrade with less than a 1 year period, so why would I go for your odds over 5 years?
You are becoming shrill so I won’t disturb you further. Have a nice day.
Well, gee. You are too kind.
Thanks 4 Bumping The Thread T4BTT
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2965392/posts?page=19#19
Or are you utterly incapable of processing conditional reasoning... my bet is you are incapable of addressing the conditional.
***Looks like my bet was correct.
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