The government is counting on it. They don't pass the tax to curb behavior. They pass it to cash in on someone else's addiction. And at the federal level, when it comes to cigarettes, they are also counting on a smoker's early death. As long as people continue to die prematurely from smoking, the government will save billions on social security liabilities. If everyone quit smoking altogether, the government would start subsidizing tobacco. Oh wait, they already do.
The subsides, paid for through the MSA by manufacturers(since 2004)- not a government taxpayer tax, will be ending in 2014.
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/newsReleases?area=newsroom&subject=landing&topic=ner&newstype=newsrel&type=detail&item=nr_20120113_rel_0006.html