Sorry, I have to vent about the Cowboys and the NFL:
December 19, 2012
The Dallas Cowboys and the NFL Referees
Thesis: The NFL referees work to suppress the performance of the Dallas Cowboys and enhance the performance of their opponents in order to maximize NFL viewership and sustained interest in the NFL year to year.
The Dallas Cowboys remain one of the most watched and sought after teams in the world of football fans. Since their dynasty era of the 1990s, the Dallas Cowboys have entered into a peculiar funk that provides for endless commentaries extolling the mystery of why the Cowboys seem to largely be unable to make the playoffs. Before you dismiss this theory as another whining fan, take a look at some hard facts:
1. Dallas in 2012 is the most penalized team in the NFL— averaging eight penalties per game. This past weekend against Pittsburgh was typical— several penalties against the Cowboys and ZERO against the Pittsburgh Steelers. You read that right. The Steelers had no penalties called against them. Remember that this game went into over time. Consider how much extra attention and viewership this game got as a result of one sided penalties that kept the Cowboys from ever putting the Steelers away. This pattern is observable throughout this season in many games. This statistic is also true when analyzed on a per play basis.
2. Dallas has the most severe ratio between first half and second half offensive performance. For some mysterious reason, the Cowboys do worse than any other team in the NFL in the first half and better than almost all other teams in the second half. The statistics are so skewed that it is highly improbable that any cohesive team unit in any sport could complete such a numeric feat so consistently. It stands to reason that an outside force is creating this peculiar consistency. Dallas ranks 30th among 32 teams in first half points. Dallas ranks 3rd among 32 teams in second half points. No other team has such a peculiar performance relationship between the first and second halves. Almost all teams perform similarly between the first and second halves.
3. Dallas’ opponents are among the least penalized teams in the NFL. This year Dallas opponents average 5.3 penalties per game. Dallas averages 8.0 penalties per game. In the last three games, Dallas opponents have averaged a record setting 3.0 penalties per game. In 2010, Dallas opponents were the third least penalized group in the NFL. In 2011, they were the fourth least penalized group in the NFL. The chief nemesis of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East is one of the least penalized teams in the NFL— the New York Giants. Keep in mind that there is no particular reason why a team would stop— as the Steelers did— or reduce their penalty output. There should be no trend here.
4. In 2011, the Cowboys finished the year with the second fewest amounts of first downs resulting from penalties behind the Houston Texans. They are 18th this year overall, but tied for first in their last three games this year.
Any one of these statistics alone— even for an entire year— is a meaningless unfortunate whine. Taken together over time, they become an impossible probability that requires agency and intention. It is useful to keep Dallas games close and the franchise hunting for an elusive playoff spot. In every annual case, they are so close that you have to tune in to find out the ultimate outcome of both the games and the season. Dallas is managed by the NFL to maximize viewership— both for Dallas fans and Dallas opponents who would love to beat the Cowboys more than most NFL franchises. If the games are closer with careful officiating— all the better for everyone involved.
This year offers at least a small glimpse at an alternative universe: the replacement referees.
What happened in Cowboy games officiated by this allegedly unfit group of officials? Dallas ended that mini-league 2-0— even trouncing the Super Bowl champion New York Giants in a game that surprised analysts.
It is frankly creepy to listen to all the verbal acrimony over the ‘bad officiating’ and the subdued commentary on the same question when regular NFL refs are on the field. When the Pittsburg game went to overtime and the Steelers were never called for one penalty, I never once heard a commentator even remark on the peculiar statistic of this game and how it might have factored into the results.
This thesis has enough statistical weight to receive serious consideration. I invite others to pursue their own investigations in to the question and others that arise. My general sense is that the NFL may in fact, ‘manage’ games to maximize and sustain viewership rather than encourage the most accurate athletic outcome based on individual performances.
Reference materials:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-penalties-per-game?date=2012-02-05
Post season Epilogue [December 30]:
Since the original writing of this analytic essay, two games have transpired.
The Cowboys lost two close games to the New Orleans Saints and the Washington Redskins.
Had the Cowboys won the overtime game with the Saints, the Cowboys would have made the playoffs.
Despite the Redskins being one of the most penalized teams in the NFL (3rd) almost no penalties were called against the Redskins. The first half went with almost no penalties called in Washington DC. At the half, both teams were tied at 7. The Redskins repeated the same mysterious lack of penalties as the Steelers two weeks prior. At the end of the game, a critical stoppage of Washington in the red zone that would have given the Cowboys the ball back with almost two minutes left was relieved when the Cowboys were called for ‘roughing the passer’ on a third down. The penalty gave Washington first and goal and less than two minutes to kill.
The constant rating of the Cowboys as one of the most penalized teams in the NFL is almost believable. The combination of high penalties with low penalties on opponents— even when those opponents have high penalty rankings is simply beyond the realm of reasonable possibility.
For 2012, the NFL referee system played the Dallas ‘Charlie Brown’ Cowboys perfectly. The massive Cowboy fan viewing base watched every game— many going to the last minute or over time— only to find that their Cowboys were still teetering on the edge of the playoffs. It is impossible to believe that one of the most expensive ($2 billion!) and arguably talented sports rosters in the world is intrinsically inept to a point of committing penalties at record levels while their opponents commit a record lack of penalties. Even more improbable is the profound absence of commentary on this peculiar skewage among sports punditry. The same punditry that was fascinated with every flaw of the replacement ref system in the first two games of the season, seems as blind as the worst refs observing the oddly unlucky Cowboys. The NFL is managing the games for ratings through its refereeing systems. Getting rid of Romo, Jones, or Garret will not make a bit of difference. As long as the Cowboys can be used to prolong viewership throughout NFL games and the NFL season, the league will continue to manage them in this way.
A variety of additional factors could also be considered regarding this odd problem of Dallas penalties. Dallas faced an unusual set of injuries at the end of the season that is arguably tied to suppressed penalties against opposing teams.
Thanks for that post. I have had similar thoughts along those lines for quite some time, your post pulls it all together very well.
Would you like some cheese with that whine?
Are you joking? the refs last night ignored a clear delay of game by Romo - 2 sec after the clock expired - and it resulted in a TD.
The Cowboys are the most penalized team because they have no discipline. They have no discipline because of Jerry Jones. Your conspiracy theory is ridiculous.
The problem with your thesis is that most Dallas penalties are clear cut dead ball situations like false start, 12 men in the huddle. They’re just not a disciplined team. They make bad mental mistakes. Jones focuses on acquiring star players, often with off the field issues, not on fundamentally sound football players. When you have players that have issues with simple off the field rules like drunk driving you shouldn’t be surprised when they have issues with simple on field rules like don’t move before the snap.