RCP's average in Florida was Romney +1.5, two percentage points away from the final result.
Shows that, if anything, polls are biased towards republicans. A GOP candidate needs to be up 2-3 points in order cover union and democarat turnout machine.
You are right. But it’s still great. No fancy algorithm, no secret sauce (whatever that means). Nate got 1 state better than them. And even Nate gave Obama just 50.3% chance of winning Florida.