[Frapster]

For example the final CNN poll was debunked on one assumption - no way were the dems +11. Is this an electoral college issue? Was this not 'its the economy stupid?'

I believe we can't know where to point the fingers until we at least understand why our assessments didn't pan out like they seemed to indicate they would.

[Perdogg]

and?

[expat1000]

Figure out why Intrade had Obama +40 Nov 6 and you might have the answer.

[Utmost Certainty]

I’d been pretty skeptical of the interpretations I was seeing bandied about on here and elsewhere—but I didn’t have anything quantitative to back that skepticism, other than an overall intuition that the electoral demographics of the country had slid decisively in Ø’s favor.

If there are reliable #s anywhere that show trends in party affiliation over the past few decades, that might be a clue.

[jdsteel]

I have a hard time believing that the turnout was less than ‘08.