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To: George N

No, Gallup and Rasmussen are two pollsters who do extensive polling on party ID.

Most of the other polls do their polling and then weight the results based upon their assumptions as to the party ratio of those who will actually vote.

It is that latter group that is coming up with the big Democrat advantage—because they are putting it there.

Gallup, which does the biggest polling on party ID has reported a major swing to the GOP.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 6:21:00 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker
Most of the other polls do their polling and then weight the results based upon their assumptions as to the party ratio of those who will actually vote.

Actually, most pollsters do not weight their results based on Party ID. They weight to meet certain demographics (usually to make sure the demographics roughly match the area being polled), but do not weight to meet a certain Party ID number - they just report the Party ID of their samples, as collected. The problem is that, for whatever reason, those samples this year have massively, and consistently, over-stated the number of Dems (and understated the number of Republicans). Whether that's because conservatives are less likely to talk to media pollsters, more likely to be out of the house (y'know, at work), or for some other reason, the samples seem to be off. It's a sampling problem, not an artificial weighing problem.

67 posted on 11/05/2012 6:53:51 AM PST by Conscience of a Conservative
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