Posted on 11/03/2012 8:56:38 AM PDT by Signalman
O'REILLY: "Campaign 2012 Segment" tonight, as you may know, Dick Morris predicting a big landslide for Mitt Romney even though, as we mentioned, a "New York Times" poll out today says the President will most likely win in three vital swing state.
Morris, the author of the big new bestseller, "Here Comes the Black Helicopter"; he joins us now Dick Morris from Detroit.
So you, I'm sure, repudiate the "New York Times" poll?
DICK MORRIS, FOX NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. And let me go through the numbers because it's important for people to get in.
In Florida, the "Times" says Obama is going to win by one. But their sample has seven points more Democrats than Republicans. Pollster John McLaughlin and I went through the actual results of the last four elections and on average the Republicans had one percent more than the Democrats. So that poll is off by a factor of eight. So instead of Obama winning by one, Romney would win Florida by seven.
In Ohio, Obama is shown as winning by five in the "Times" poll. But they had eight points more Democrats than Republicans. And historically there were only two points more D's than R's. So that's 6 points off. So, instead of Romney losing by five, he wins Ohio by one.
And in Virginia they have Obama winning by two. But they have eight points more Democrats than Republicans and historically there is one point more Republican than Democrat. That's off by a factor of 9. Romney wins Virginia by seven.
O'REILLY: All right. That's pretty much what Rove did on his little board.
-click link for full transcript-
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
ROMNEY ROMP.. RR.. BIG!
Ok, I’ll put up or shut up.. If I am wrong, it will be PASTA for every FReeper! All of you, PASTA ITALIANO, toto.. :)
Morris revised this October 31 prediction yesterday,sez Sandy favored the incumbent
LLS
As Glenn Beck would say, pray for Divine Providence.
I don’t see how Sandy would favor the incumbent. From what I’m hearing, the recovery effort has been a total SNAFU.
Dick Morris is full of sh!t, and has been for years. This is how a paid media hack operates.
Dick Morris cannot make up his mind. Think I’ll just wait and see.
https://twitter.com/PeterHambyCNN/status/264731273300430848/photo/1
AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka firing up canvassers in Columbus
I figured he was going to blame his prediction failure on Sandy. No doubt Obama is getting a Sandy bounce, but not enough to explain away Morris's obviously ridiculous predictions of a Romney landslide.
What is his new prediction?
NY Slimes and CBS hired QU a polling firm
Created by their former employees !
QU is the worst polling firms with a sorry track record .
In 2010 called the Fl gov race for Slink by
5 pts . Scott won it by 1 pt so s 6 pt swing on Election Day poll !
QU other predictions in 2010 were just as off .
Kaplan heads the CBS news div ,he ran CNN and the Clinton war room during Monica gate ! He made CNN the Clinton News Network !
Now his push polling along with Nate Silver I’d being exposure as pure propaganda !
That his dog will write another book in 2013.
The election will show how far off the polls have been.
The SNAFU in NY and NJ is not going to alter those races and both states are pretty much in obozo’s camp. With the media not showing a whole lot of the bad verses the good they manufacture about His Excellency’s visit, it could have a positive affect among indy’s, not as large a group now as we are very close to the election and anyone who can be swayed now was probably going that way anyway, so it could give Bozo a few points. Given the pre sandy Gallop was 7 for Romney, give him 2-3 decline, he still wins going away. Raz confirms the 2 point shift in his latest poll too but significantly, it has Romney ahead by a few tenths percentage. It is going to be close, Romney should win with 275 or so EVs IMO. Hard to get the incompetent incombent out unless it was a Carter who was depantsed on national TV every night by his own ineptness.
Was he lying then or is he lying now. What a piece of excrement.
Still four years later, Glenn Beck comes on your show and points out that he is a Marxist revolutionary (albeit a lazy one) and you STILL scoff at the idea.
After this happens, O’Reilly will praise Morris for about 10 seconds, and then go back to treating him like dirt.
Also Sandy too close to the election to matter much. As it goes on, it will be a negative for incumbents. Challengers have no downside in this.
To be fair to Morris, Obama is obviously getting a Sandy bump and I think it stopped Mitt’s momentum. But Morris was going to be wrong anyway, this isn’t going to be a landslide election either way. Such predictions were always stupid. Now he is trying to find a way to give himself an out when his predictions don’t come true.
That is almost, ALMOST, enough for me to hope you are wrong! But not quite.
Now, Carlo, suppose Romney does win big. In celebration, would you make me a nice Chicago Italian beef?
Cold, some homeless, gas hungry, food hungry, no job to go to, no place to be but remember Obama came there for an hour and a half and said he was gonna fix all dat!.....
Nope, I think he’s gonna lose some big time supporters. They are getting nasty....
This is one time that I will actually enjoy missing a fine pasta dinner. Come to think of it, I think I will have Fusilli bucati with Bolognese sauce and some fine sausage just to pre-celebrate the coming Romney Romp. I would celebrate with a Mormon style meal, but I am not clear on what that would include.
>>What is his new prediction?
Now saying Obama has pulled even (2 pt O gain) and we should “work like hell” to win
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954322/posts
>>As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992. With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48. That is troublesome.We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed. Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!
Hes predicting,kinda like the weather folks do
Wow, now the shoe is on the other foot.. If I win, I have to bust my Butt while crying, and If I lose, I have to bust my Butt while laughing..
I'll have to get back to you on this... developing.. LOL
You are correct sir. I am in NJ. The only thing the storm will do is reduce Obama votes by people that can’t get out. It still will not matter as NJ is so corrupt they wouldn’t know how to do anything legally.
Big Senate vote in NJ between Melendez & Kryllos(?). While Melendez may lose some votes because people can’t get to the polls, Kryllos did a good job. Either way, Melendez is in a totally corrupt area and he has been totally corrupt for many years. He was waiting his turn for Lautenberg. Probably wins easily due to ignorant people who would vote for him even if he shot babies on National TV. They are part of the true 47%.
I doubt it. But I’d love to be wrong.
BUT I do trust Michael Barone and he is saying Romney get 305 eletoral votes.
Told my wife back in March that R/R would obliterate the ? in Chief in both the Electoral and popular vote. I am holding my breath.
<< I don’t see how Sandy would favor the incumbent. From what I’m hearing, the recovery effort has been a total SNAFU. >>
It certainly has been. I live on Long Island and without a downed tree in sight, I am in the fifth day of not having power. Plus, today I had to wait on line for more than 2 1/2 hours for a tank of gas. My wife waited on another line for two hours and then was told, “Sorry, we’re out.”
We can barely find food, and we can’t keep it if we find it. LIPA, run by crooked Democrats, (or is that a redundancy?), is working as slow as a snail in December. We actually have MORE houses without power this afternoon than we did last night.
As a homeowner of Nassau County, I pay the property taxes AND electricity rates that are the HIGHEST in the country, so needless to say, I’m pretty pissed. Enough is enough.
And he revised it again, and said Sandy was hurting Obama-keep up.
Nothing rediculous about it, it is supported by Barone and Rove.
Obama is enjoying a temporary bump among independents due to the hurricane. I believe it has already begun and will continue to fade.
Ras is simply over sampling Democrats.
I think BOR should retire, his monologue is stale, he has a convincing way to make his points I can credit him with but he is stuck on yesteryear.
Obama Hit By Storm Backlash
By Dick Morris on November 3, 2012
Natural disasters usually follow the same political trajectory: First the incumbent experiences a bounce as he tours the impacted area, shows his concern, and pledges help to his beleaguered constituents. But then reality sets in and the shortages, delays, mishaps, deaths, and devastation becomes apparent and people turn against the incumbent.
George W. Bush had his Katrina.
And now Barack Obama has his Sandy. Continue reading…
Yes, espically since they see how inept the help has been.
Morris is wrong! According to a european newspaper, Zero is winning all across America. And we all know that those europeans always say the truth.
GO R&R! Praying hard for you.
I don’t see how it helps in the Sandy-ravaged states because they’re blue already any way. I’m guessing that it’s a matter of people seeing him on TV being presidential and “caring” — and then not reading any followup stories about how bad it’s going.
Correct. while it won’t change the out come it should suppress the base and cause even lower popular vote numbers for zero.
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