[Longbow1969]

The polls support the narrow Obama victory side of things.

I tend to agree with that assessment, probably because I am a pessimist who has long ago lost faith in what passes as the American public these days.

Saying that, once upon a time we generally relied on national polls and the gold standard tended to be Gallup. Gallup has Romney up between 3-5 points almost every day now. It is hard to imagine Gallup getting it so wrong when they are usually at least reasonably close. Rasmussen also has Romney up 3 nationally for days now. That poll may not be perfect, but it seems to be picking up on something.

Then again, the state polls look kinda rough for Mitt. So at this time the real question is, are the national polls right or is it the state polls that are more accurately telling how this thing will end up. I agree with your view of things, but I suspect Obama is still sweating a bit at how close it got.

[tatown]

You seem to show up in every ‘Obama is going to win’ thread. Weird how that happens.

[muawiyah]

Gallup has been asking a sexual orientation question with every poll for a year ~ we had a story on that last week.

That gives them a control on who is actually answering their polls ~ and that probably mitigates the low response rate problem.

I'd describe how they must be doing this but that'd ruin it.