“Romney can win IA, NV and CO and not even need OH. CO is looking good.”
Nevada looks like it’s going to Obama. Rasmussen’s last poll shows him leading there, 50-47%.
Despite all kinds of optimism here on FR, Ohio still looks to be tough for Romney, and will likely be as close on election night as was Florida in 2000 (I would enjoy being proven wrong on this). So, as it stands today (hpefully things will change in the next two weeks), I believe Romney’s path to victory must exclude OH.
If Romney can hold Colorado (9 electoral votes), he could combine Iowa (6) and New Hampshire (4) to overcome the loss of Ohio (18 votes).
I’m not going to be lulled into notions that this election will be a runaway for Romney. It will be excruciatingly close in the places that count (states like Utah, Oklahoma, California, Illinois, Vermont or New York don’t “count” because we know they will vote “top heavy” for either Romney or Obama).
Most people have already made up their minds, and the struggle for the few “undecideds” (where on earth do these folks come from?) or “waving wheats” (folks who “change their support” for reasons only they know) is going to elevate to a crescendo in the next 14 days, with more and more riding on “less and less”, insofar as the issues are concerned.
One consolation is that something like 90% of people (at least in some instances) simply refuse to talk to pollsters at all. With only one in ten are willing to talk to them, it makes me wonder what “the 90%” are really thinking. Also makes me wonder what percentage of these “refuseniks” support Romney in their secrecy, and how many support Obama. A lot of reticence out there — and a lot of anger.
I agree that Nevada is toughest on that list. I just don’t feel as optimistic about the Midwest as you. I don’t see us winning WI but losing OH....but hey, I’d really rather you be right than I be right.