[arista]

"68 percent think Obama gets a second term"

Right now Obama's chance of winning the election is trading at 65 on Intrade. That doesn't mean that 65% of the traders think he will win. It doesn't mean that they think he will get 65% of the vote.

It means that people who think he will win are putting at risk $6.50 for a chance to win $3.50. On the othr side of the bet are people who think he will lose who are risking $3.50 for a chance to win $6.50.

The best way to think of Intrade is as a conglomeration of public knowledge of an event.

[norwaypinesavage]

"It means that people who think he will win are putting at risk $6.50 for a chance to win $3.50. On the othr side of the bet are people who think he will lose who are risking $3.50 for a chance to win $6.50."

There's gotta be some margin for the bookie. Any idea what that is?