Replies

The sun increased in total irradiance up to the 80's and has fluctuated a bit down since then. The oceans delay solar warming so the warmer sun in the 80's continued to warm the atmosphere in the 90's. Now in the 2000's that warming has run out (basically temperatures are flat). Recently the sun went into a funk, so the alarmists say the atmosphere should have cooled in response. Not true! The drop will again be delayed by thermal inertia from the oceans. We will see only see that cooling in the next decade or so.

Another oversimplification is looking at total solar irradiance and not the other effects of an inactive sun. For example the lack of sunspots and solar wind may allow more galactic cosmic rays to hit the earth which in turn causes more clouds which may cause cooling over the long run (that science is not settled). Another example is the lack of solar ultraviolet may allow extra blocking patterns. That certainly changes our weather (more storminess in winter for example). Again the jury is out whether that also causes global cooling.

In short the sun has a lot of effects on weather and therefore on climate which are generally not considered or oversimplified by the scientists in charge of the models. For that and other reasons I do not believe models that predict "catastrophic" warming.