Agreed, NVD.
Personally, I believe the 15-16% figures - I’ve also heard 23% numbers - are far more accurate, using the U6 data. The U3 data is tainted and skewed lower.
Well, it isn’t just that U3 is gamed lower than reality.
It is that fundamental macro-econ assumptions in BLS employment models are now being challenged by events.
For example, there is no category for some types of long-term unemployed. There are people out there who have had their entire industry obliterated under their feet, and they have to take very low-wage jobs, if they can find them.
One of the other issues are things like youth unemployment. The kids coming out of colleges didn’t have a working history that enters lots of BLS models, they graduate and have a degree... but there are no prospects for them. eg, people with law degrees. Finally, we have a downturn in the hiring environment for lawyers. How do you count someone with a JD who has no job prospects as a lawyer? Further, how do we square the facts the almost no job that doesn’t pay six figures will allow them to pay down their incredible student debt, and there are no prospects for their making six figures without being a lawyer in a top-tier firm, etc? These people are going to be economic dead weight for years to come ... .and there’s no way to reflect that in the models and stats.