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Very interesting video.

Has Dicky the toe sucker been right about anything ever?

He may be right on this one. If so, it’d almost be a first since his “overall prediction record” is pretty dismal, IIRC.

You mean like Bob Dole and John McInsane?

I am sick of this fat oppotunist rughead telling us what’s going to happen..and if he is a reliable authority.

He’s in the tank for Romney so everything will be skewed in his favor.

dick “the toe” morris is an idiot! I could have beaten McGovern and goldwater. {too bad about goldwater, he was ahead of his time]. Anyone that comes out of the 2012 convention will beat the communist fraud usurper soetoro hussein. What will the toesucker say then...”well its still one out of five”!

In this History video commentary, I discuss how every candidate that survived the nomination fight in the four deadlocked conventions since 1960 ultimately lost the presidential election.

He's talking about contested conventions. There were no deadlocked conventions in those years.

No convention has gone past a first ballot since 1952 for the Democrats, 1948 for the Republicans. 1924, 1912, 1860 for the Democrats, 1880, 1920 for the Republicans -- those were deadlocked conventions.

I actually saw Dick Morris push this line in person last night at a fund-raiser for the exceptional and talented Chicago 42nd Ward candidate William Kelly.

I don't think he persuaded any of us Santorum supporters.

Here are SOME of Morris' problems:

A. Morris is a numbers guy. He MUST know that four is too small a sample from which to make a generalization. Three of his four examples came from unrepeated historical events:

1. 1964: Assassination of the president before '64, as if Goldwater or Rockefeller on the first ballot would have made a crumb of difference in the outcome.)

2. 1968: Key candidate Bobby Kennedy being assassinated before the convention put everything in chaos. Besides that, it was a very close race with results obscured by George Wallace's third party bid.

3. 1976: The '76 contest came on the heels of Watergate, and Ford's pardon of Nixon did not help. In any event, that election was so close (<1%) that it is silly to blame the fact that Reagan came very close.

B. Regarding the fourth, the reason the Dems lost in ''72 WASN'T because there was a tightly contested race, but because they nominated the wrong guy. If McGovern were coronated in February, he still would have been slaughtered.

C. Even if we grant Mr. Morris' premise, he is making the classical statistician's error of confusing indicators with causes. (This happens with baseball stats all of the time). If the Establishment steamrollered everybody with rule changes and disqualified all of the non-Romney delegates and nominated Romney through voice acclamation, it would do nothing about the underlying problem that more than half of the party feels gypped. The problem is that the Establishment is pushing a candidate who is only palatable o one third of the party.

D. We have plenty of examples of a good clean win before the convention with disastrous results in the General: McCain, Dole, George the Elder ('92). So it is not, you have a clean shot, you win. Far from it.

E. Ford had enough delegates going into the '76 convention. The Reagan people had enough to slow down the convention and make a lot of noise (the first use I know of for those vuvululas). But remember, Reagan preannounced Richard Schweicker as his VP choice to try to move some of the technically uncommitted but Ford backing delegates in NY and PA. The gambit did not payoff, and everyone knew it before the convention. Black Elk also claims that '68 would have been a real fight had Ford, who was running the convention, not gaveled people out of order, before some state slates would change from Nixon to Reagan (Things were a lot more fluid back then).

F. Morris' last example is from 1976. No Internet or Cable News. Numerous rule changes since. The Iowa Caucus was just starting, and was exploited by Jimmy Carter. No Super Tuesday. Reagan had only won ONE primary (NC) before his magnificent slaughter in Texas on April 1. Nonetheless, he had an outright plurality of primary votes. More than Ford. FEC financing and matching was new and pretty much mandatory, (Connolly went without in 1980, and had ONE delegate to show for it). Applying historical examples from 1976 would be akin to saying that no NFL QB who threw more than 40 times in a game had ever won the game. THAT was true at the time. Or, "Dome teams don't win Super Bowls." ... THAT was true at the time.

No. Dick Morris is an intelligent and charismatic speaker who can provide insightful analysis, and too intelligent to not anticipate some of these objections. Here, I can only conclude he is simply cheer-leading and spinning on behalf of his preferred candidate, though more subtly than Ann Coulter, who doesn't know enough not to insult the people she claims to want to persuade.

Duh! The fact that it is deadlocked means there are nothing but losers from which to pick.