[campaignPete R-CT]

IF CIN loses, IT IS SIMPLE
EXACTLY 2 TEAMS LEFT AT 430PM

it opens up the 9-7 tie possibilities. And it is simple ... at 4:30pm EST when the 1pm games end, there will be exactly 2 teams left for the wildcard ... and the OAK & DEN games at 4pm EST will decide THE WINNER.

So exactly 2 of the 4 teams (CIN NYJ TEN OAK) will be eliminated when the 1pm games end. The easiest rules of thumb:
1. ONLY IF NYJ win, is 9-7 CIN out at 4:30pm.
2. ONLY IF TENN wins, is 9-7 NYJ out at 4:30pm.
and
3. OAK is out at 430pm, only if TENN wins and NYJ lose.
4. IF TENN wins, they survive at least until the 4pm games end.

[campaignPete R-CT]

AFC WILDCARD TIEBREAKERS

2-WAY TIE AT 9-7:

CIN
NYJ* wins due to conf rec

CIN* wins due to head-2-head
TEN

CIN
OAK* wins due to conf rec

AT 9-7, CINCINNATI LOSES ALL 3-WAY AND 4-WAY TIEBREAKERS DUE TO INFERIOR CONF RECORD. WORST OF THE 4-TEAMS AT 6-6, they are the first team out. Jets also have no 3-way or 4-way tiebreakers.

CIN
NYJ
TEN* wins due to common games vs. NYJ, 4-1 vs. 3-2.

CIN
NYJ
OAK* wins due to head-2-head over NYJ

CIN
TEN* wins due to common games vs. OAK, 4-1 vs. 3-2
OAK

CIN
NYJ
TEN
OAK* wins due to large lead in Strength-of-Victory over NYJ & TEN

(DEN IS OUT THE WILDCARD BECAUSE AT 9-7, THEY WIN THE DIV)

[Perdogg]

If Philadelphia beats Washington, the loser of the Dallas/NY Giants game will finish in third place in NFC East getting the third place schedule for two games next year.

[campaignPete R-CT]

i did not realize that CIN game was moved to 4pm.
exactly 2 of the 4 teams will be eliminated at 4:30 ASSUMING A LOSS BY CINCY. But certainly CINCY still alive at that point.