If there were signs that she was actually planning to run, you might be right, but I haven't seen any.
This kind of jockeying between states to be the first primary or caucus has been going on for a long time -- and this time the states really want the money and influence that an early primary would bring.
What makes you think it's not Palin supporters who are moving up the date to get her off the fence?
My guess is that your primary source of information is Katie Couric.
If she's not going to run, then apparently believe that she wants to alienate all her supporters forever.
If you actually believe she is that dumb, then you haven't been paying attention to anybody except Katie Couric and Dr. Phil.