What blue states will be in play in 2012 (electoral college)

I honestly think that our candidate needs to go after Illinos.

You want the GOP to waste money.

Obama will carry Illinois no matter what Republicans do. It's where CHICAGO is located. It's his HOME STATE. It's the most corrupt state in the country.

Sheesh!

California’s lost. Don’t waste $$ and resources here. We’ve heard CA was in play the last few national elections. Not gonna happen.

NH, PA, Wisconsin, OH, Fl, NC, NM, NV. I wouldn’t waste my time with Minn or Michigan. Minn voted down Reagan twice and Michigan along with Ca are the dumbest staes in the union.

So we have to try to win with 270-315 electoral votes then ? is a Republican landslide even possible in this country ?

California will be in play in the sense that both houses of our legislature passed bills granting the winner of the national popular vote California's electoral college votes.

This is clearly un-Constitutional but if it affects the outcome of the 2012 elections, it will be tied up in court for years.

Unless, of course, Sarah Palin or Rick Perry wins by virtue of this legislation, it will be overturned in a heartbeat.

California, Minnesota, Illinois and Delaware.. no way. They are firmly in Liberaland. Aside from some Congressional races, campaigning in those states is a waste of time and money.

Is a Republican landslide even possible in this country?

No, it`s not. It`s moved decidedly leftward since the last GOP landslide (Bush 41/Dukakis). The dems can count on a guaranteed 200+ EV before the first ballots are counted.

Can't believe the negativism and defeatism on this thread.

Every state in the union is winnable for the Republicans if they invest resources in that state. Giving up on certain states and ceding them to the liberals is suicidal.

I'm glad this attitude did not prevail in N.Y.'s 9th District last week.

No, it`s called reality. And the NY-9 dynamic was unique in that those voters had enough of Obama`s anti-Israel policies. That district is 40% Jewish. Jews comprise approx. 2.5% of the rest of the country. C`mon... CA in play? The state that, even in a pro-GOP “wave” election, re-elected Barbara Boxer and brought back Jerry Brown? Please.

I don’t see why Republicans in each state cannot fight as hard as possible to win.

California will be in play in the sense that both houses of our legislature passed bills granting the winner of the national popular vote California's electoral college votes.
This is clearly un-Constitutional...

What makes you think that this is "clearly un-Constitutional"?

The Constitution makes it clear that it is up to each State to determine how it wishes to assign Electoral Votes.

I am an all 50 state guy. I think it is silly to give up on states. It is like the pitch count in baseball. Go after every single won. Build a ground game. Stop with the 50 + 1 garbage. maybe the reason the dems can count on those 200 EV’s is because we don’t go after those voters.

It is terribly demoralizing to be written off.
It also screws up county, city, and local elections in otherwise conservative parts of the state.
(I’m from NY.)

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will be in play. Additional one might be Minnessotta. Forget about California or New England (except New Hampshire). Most of the ‘red states’ that went to 0bama in 2008 will all return back. The swinging one, like Iowa, New Mexico will be interesting to see. As will be purple states like Nevada and Colorado.

I’ve lived in occupied territory. I’ve lived in home base.

It can be done. Is it harder? Yes, but it’s well worth it. Last time I canvassed I got people who had never seen anyone come out to their house since FDR.

Course it was out in the boonies, but you can bet those folks were impressed that someone actually cared enough to chase after ‘em.

>>Delaware will definately be in play this time.<<

With RATs having a stranglehold on elective offices and a compliant RINO Party and Old Joe Biden and strong, unemployed unions, Delaware is a far cry from being “in play”. Delaware is closer to Detroit than being “in play”.

Count on the RINO Party to run a sure-loser candidate for the lone House seat. Count on the RINO Party to stay on their hands if Romney is not the nominee. Count on the RINO party to vote for 0bambi if Palin is the nominee.

I know, I’ve been stuck in this p*$$ant state for way too long. Help!

Yankee born, Southern bred and, by the grace of God, a rebel until death.

A long post but this thread seemed to be crying out for some Electoral Math analysis:

Well here we are FReepers, 13½ months from the 2012 Elections. And it’s time to take a quick look at where the candidates stand in the Electoral College, what states to look out for, and the strategies the potential nominees will play on their path to 270. At this stage of the game, it appears that either Rick Perry or Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee (don’t blame me if you don’t like this, I’m just reporting the situation as it stands now). Sarah Palin is the only other potential candidate I see that could get into the race and challenge the two front-runners. At this stage, it looks like curtains for Bachmann, Paul, Gingrich, Cain, Santorum, and Huntsman.

First off, let’s take a look at the “Safe” Marxist, er, I mean Obama states. These are states that will go blue no matter who we nominate. Sure, you might hear the media report of problems in places like NJ, WA, and OR, but forget it. Rick Perry winning OR? Mitt Romney winning WA? Sarah Palin winning NJ? I wouldn’t hold my breath. These states have too many liberals to offset our well-informed vote. As Reagan showed, there is only one way you can get these people to vote for our side, and that’s that they have to absolutely trust the guy/girl they are voting for, and not just because of contempt for the other guy (i.e. people vote “for” President, not “against”). Protest may be good enough to win seats in Congress, but it won’t be enough to win the POTUS.

Alarmingly, there are still 196 “Safe” Democrat Electoral Votes, which would normally be surprising given Obama’s cellar approval ratings, but these liberals will come home to him in 2012 just like they did in 2008. The difference is that many may choose to sit on their hands or vote third party, but he’ll still win enough in these states to claim victory. However, if you start seeing Obama have to spend time/money in any of these locations, then the “landslide” is coming.

Hawaii (4), California (55), Oregon (7), Washington (12), Minnesota (10), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New York (29), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), District of Columbia (3)

Now to the Republicans. I am about 90% confident that Rick Perry & Sarah Palin start off with the same 196 Electoral Votes, while I believe Mitt Romney would start off with 181. The difference is North Carolina. I think we have firmly put NC and IN back into the red column. However, Romney has two problems working against him. The first is the whole “Mormon Factor” thing in the Southern GOP states. At the end of the day, while some might sit on their hands and not vote, I don’t believe there would be enough votes in states like GA, AL, MS, TN, etc to flip these to Obama, especially since he is so unpopular at the moment. But NC may still pose a problem for Romney. In addition to being a razor thin margin for Obama in 2008, NC this time around has some kind of same-sex marriage stuff on the ballot in 2012. If Romney is the nominee, this would only fuel people there who are aware Romney flunked the issue when he was Governor of Mass., which is where all this stuff began. I can’t say NC is a slam dunk for him the way I can say it is for Perry or Palin. Just 14,000 more votes in suburban Asheville (going 50-50 in the area instead of 60-40), would be enough to turn the state back to the GOP. Also, don’t buy this garbage about Perry trailing Obama in Texas or Palin trailing Obama in Alaska. It ain’t happening.

Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), Utah (6), Arizona (11), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Texas (38), Louisiana (8), Arkansas (6), Mississippi (6), Alabama (9), Georgia (16), South Carolina (9), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), West Virginia (5), North Carolina (15), Indiana (11)

So, it’s essentially a 196-196 tie with both parties having an equal starting base. 38 states seem pretty much decided, so 2012 will probably come down to the remaining 12 states.

Democratic Leaners (26 Electoral Votes) –

Pennsylvania (20) – Every election cycle, this always gets labeled a “toss-up”. We run a conservative, we still fall short. We run a moderate, we get creamed. Toomey won in 2010 and PA House seats swung to the GOP, but the turnout was still light. Even not at full strength, the Philadelphia/Pittsburgh voting machines nearly gave Sestak the victory. We would be best spending our money elsewhere where the stakes of winning are much better.

Nevada (6) – Reid managed to win reelection despite his son getting clobbered by Sandoval. Before cries of “fraud” get yelled too loudly, the numbers tell what really happened. The various GOP factions in Nevada (Conservatives, Moderates, Libertarians) are incredibly split and don’t seem to get along really well. They didn’t like Sharon Angle because she was too conservative, and didn’t like McCain because he was too liberal. All the GOP candidates seem to have the same problem going in here. Romney will tout the Mormon Republicans in the state, but the rest of the conservative base will probably tune him out. Perry and Palin will do well with conservatives, but it’s unlikely the moderates and libertarians will come to their support. I’ve gone through the numbers here. Just to have a chance, the GOP nominee will need to take at least 300,000 votes in Clark and about 100,000 in Washoe counties to have a chance (assuming Obama’s support remains flat or drops several thousand votes). This number takes unification. It means that the Paulbot nutcases need to “get their a$$es in line” and support our guy/gal. And since I don’t think that will happen, when you mix this in with the potential Vegas voter fraud, winning NV becomes a very difficult proposition, even if Obama is weak.

Republican Leaners (52 Electoral Votes)

Missouri (10) – This state is the Democrat’s version of Pennsylvania. Time and time again, it’s been proven that there is just enough votes to offset the KC/STL/SE MO/Boone County liberal strongholds. If we can win it with McCain (barely), we can win it with anybody. There seems to also be a good Senate race going on with a decent candidate in Steeleman, so that should help.

Virginia (13) – I actually had this in my safe column a few months ago, but pulled it back into the leaners. Perry or Palin should carry this state. Romney would have the hardest time here. VA has shown that when you run a conservative, you win. When you run a moderate, you don’t win. Democrats that win at the state level tend to run on a somewhat conservative platform also, which makes Obama’s 6 point victory here really embarrassing. I put a lot of faith in the fact that George Allen is running to reclaim his Senate seat, but Tim Kaine is apparentally providing a solid challenge. That Senate race could decide what way the state goes. I just don’t understand, though, how someone could vote for Kaine if they were going to vote for Perry or Palin. Allen didn’t handle the whole “mucacah” incident well, but last I checked he still had a conservative platform. Guess we’ll see.

Florida (29) – The GOP could technically still get to 270 without winning FL and NV by winning all the other toss-up states, but it might be safe to say that if we don’t win FL this time around, Obama’s reelection becomes probable. Obama over-performed in conservative areas along the I-4 corridor and Duval county, while holding the numbers in the traditional Democratic stronghold of South Florida. I have a hard time seeing this feat repeated. However, I am at a loss over the recent Mayoral loss in Jacksonville by the Tea Party candidate, which has traditionally been a GOP stronghold. To be safe, Marco Rubio will probably be on stand-by waiting to accept the VP slot for whomever gets the nomination.

TOSS UPS (68)

Colorado (9) – Can you say ground Zero of 2012? Looks like the Tea Party Republicans make up about 35-40% of the voters here. I said before, the candidate that wants to win here better not do anything to pi$$ off Tom Tancredo, which means being solid on the immigration issue. Tancredo’s already made it clear he finds Perry’s stance unacceptable. It’s possible with the HPV and immigration issues coming out now, that were Perry the nominee, he could overcome it and the two could make amends. But this is one state the candidates are going to have to fight hard for. We don’t know enough on Palin’s immigration stance to see what way Tancredo would fall on her. We know he endorsed Romney in 2008, but no telling if that was a default choice or not. Currently, this looks to still be on the blue side.

Iowa (6) – Whereas Perry has a problem in CO, Romney has a problem in IA. Like McCain, Romney has no shot here. Palin and Perry can play strong to the social conservatives here which is key to remaining competitive in the state. That means the ethanol subsidy issue could loom large, as both Perry and Palin strongly oppose them. It’s unclear which way IA will go yet.

Wisconsin (10) – This is a pure toss-up state. It was razor thin in 2000 (when Democrats gave homeless people cigarettes for their votes) and again in 2004. Republicans held on and won a key heated state-wide race in the Supreme Court and survived the recalls to maintain control. The opposition strength in these races was highly irregular in an-off election year with major funding from unions. They literally threw everything they had at the GOP, and the Republicans survived. If anything, this proves WI is in play in 2012. All 3 candidates seem to have a decent shot winning here, as both Romney’s economic message and Perry/Palin Tea Party supporters have victories they can claim under their belt from 2010/2011. Unsure of which way it will go.

Michigan (16) – I was tempted to leave this one in the Leans Democrat category, because I do not believe the people of Michigan have learned their lesson, and like PA, they have the Detroit/Lansing voter machine. However, Tea Party operatives here have recently announced the launching of a massive campaign here to turn the state Red. Not sure if it will work, but once again, all three candidates play well here, particularly Romney’s economic message.

Ohio (18) – Has anyone ever seen the electoral map of OH? It’s mostly Red, with the exception of Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, and the southeast. As the economy goes, so goes OH, so it is hard to see how Obama holds onto this state. But OH has had a history of voting for radicals before, along with voter fraud, so it will be left to be seen.

New Hampshire (4) – This is a toss-up for Mitt Romney only, otherwise it is most likely blue against Perry/Palin. The Republicans in NH are not “conservatives”.

New Mexico (5) – Perry has a good shot here being a neighbor. Palin could play well here with support of the female Governor. Not sure of Romney’s chances. Marco Rubio on the ticket could help carry NM in the GOP column, though it will be tough.

So where do we stand?

First, I’ll start off with Mitt Romney, because his path to 270 seems the most straightforward (he either does it a certain way or loses outright)

Romney’s easiest path to 270 is this: Win all the safe Republican states, tout the economic message in FL/OH, and win NH , MO, VA. This accounts for 270 electoral votes. Because Romney would have a decent shot of winning NH, his team could potentially craft a strategy where they wouldn’t have to rely on winning any states in the Southwest. The one problem with this strategy, however, is that he is vulnerable in NC and VA. He cannot switch out WI/MI for NC/VA, as this would leave him at 268 EV’s. Rather than place Rubio on the ticket, Romney might go for another economic conservative, such as Herman Cain.

Next is Rick Perry. Perry has the advantage of not having to worry about NC. If the economy is still in the tank come election time, then he should be able to win FL and OH. That makes 266 EV’s, meaning he would need to win just 1 state of the toss-ups.

Palin is next. Her path would be similar to Perry’s. She has one advantage to Perry in that she currently has the better chance to carry CO. Unfortunately, winning CO, NM, and IA while losing OH would leave her at 268. She’d have to win WI or the more unlikely ME(2). Personally, I’m of the belief that all of these states will go one way or the other in 2012 and we won’t be worried about splits.

Current Prediction:
Romney (270) v Obama (268) – 125,000,000 votes (drop-off from 2008) 50.8 to 47.6 to 1.6 (other)
Perry (271) v Obama (267) – 128,000,000 votes (drop off from 2008) 51.5 to 47.2 to 1.3 (other)
Palin (272) v Obama (266) – 124,000,000 votes (drop off from 2008) 50.2 to 47.9 to 1.9 (other)

Assumes as of today, Romney would win all the McCain States + NC, IN, VA, FL, OH, and NH

Assumes as of today, Perry would win all the McCain States + NC, IN, VA, FL, OH, and NM

Assumes as of today, Palin would win all the McCain States + NC, VA, IN, FL, OH, and IA

Romney’s Top 3 VP Picks:
1.Marco Rubio (playing for FL/Hispanic Vote/SW)
2.Herman Cain (Doubling Down on Economic Message/Nullifying Race Issue)
3.Ron Johnson (making a Tea Party play for WI)
4.Wildcard Pick: Kelly Ayotte (Trying too hard to be like the McCain Campaign)

Perry’s Top 3 VP Picks:
1.Marco Rubio (Secure FL and play for NM)
2.Bob McDonnell (Safe, Popular Gov, pick, secure VA, help Allen out)
3.Bobby Jindal (Payback, Youth, Race, etc)
4.Wildcard Pick: Chris Christie (Appease Anne Coulter and Moderate Republicans)

Palin’s Top 3 VP Picks:
1.Scott Walker (Has done for WI what Palin did for AK, “Maverick Governors”, Strong)
2.Marco Rubio (He looks like a strong pick on anybody’s ticket)
3.Ayotte/Bachmann/Healey, etc (“Girl Power 2012)
4.Wildcard Pick: John Bolton (Foreign Policy Guru)

Obama is going to have $1B+ at his disposal. The GOP nominee won`t have a third of that amount. The campaign resources will best be spent in winnable states. Spending large amounts of $ in hardcore lib states like CA and NY is nothing more than pouring cash down a rathole.