AK Senate: Absentees From Military Bases (good for Miller)

Conservatives4Palin ^ | 8/30/20120 | ak267

[ak267]

Good News: A Disproportionate Percentage of the Absentees Will Likely Come from Three Military Bases Where Miller Won 75% of the Vote on Election Day

On election day, former West Point cadet and Bronze Star recipient Joe Miller defeated Republican Party Hack Lisa Murkowski by around a three-to-one margin among Alaskan registered voters at the Elmendorf Air Force base, Fort Richardson, and Fort Wainwright. The good news for Miller is that he can expect voters from these three areas to be disproportionately represented among the absentee ballots. How so?

[Right Wingnut 2]

I expect Lisa to concede within the next 24 hours. Joe’s lead will expand after the count tomorrow.

[FreeReign]

This is great news.

FUMURK!

[RachelFaith]

This I have said from he beginning.

Now Joe.

RUN BABY RUN !!!!

And WIN BIG !!!

[padre35]

Important skirmish in a larger battle, Miller wins the primary, then faces the Dhimmicrat in November.

[businessprofessor]

Every Republican primary candidate should pledge to forsake third party and independent run for office. We have some very sore losers in the Republican party now. Murkowski should have already conceded or at least disavowed any third party ideas. The sore loser stuff should be left with the rats.

[cherry]

it seems the Pub party has a lot of "poor me" characters.....

you rarely see dims breaking ranks......

I hope tomorrow goes well and GI JOE can get his run for the US Senate underway....

[Catsrus]

Ooh, I like that phrase, GI Joe. Or how about Sarah’s question to Biden - may I call you Joe?

Here’s hoping he pulls this out and is the next Senator from Alaska. It will give me the warm fuzzies. He isn’t bad to look at either.

Anyone ever notice that the conservatives seem to have the best looking candidates?

[Kansas58]

Good news, to be sure.
However, many of those military voters will still vote in their HOME STATE, which is probably NOT Alaska.

[truthfreedom]

There are no real 3d party options for Murk at this point.

[truthfreedom]

Based on this article and a few assumptions that I made and some quick math, there are my guesses about how many votes Miller and Murk will get out of these 4 military bases.

I assumed that the turnout, after absentees, will be roughly the state average - for my purposes, somewhere around 25-30 percent. Because Joe Miller is a war hero, it might be realistic to think that the turnout would be higher, and the fact that he won 3 to 1 over Murk would tend to indicate that's a good guess. Either way - I did some quick math for each of the bases to get the total turnout somewhere in that 25 to 30 range.

I also assumed that the absentees would go the way the election day votes went. Palin endorsed Miller back in June. I think it's a fairly safe assumption that these absentees weren't turned in before that.

	elmen	rich	wain	eiel		total
Republican	1020	630	930	810	=	3390
Miller	800	476	660	600	=	2536
Murkowski	220	154	270	210	=	854
Miller Gain	580	322	390	390	=	1682

What this is saying is that there will be 3390 Republican absentees cast in these 4 bases, Miller will get 2536 votes, Murk will get 854, for a Miller pickup of 1682, which is bigger than his current lead.

[truthfreedom]

Looking at 2006 primary results. This was the primary where Palin beat Frank Murkowski.

I’m now not very confident that the turnout after absentees at the military bases will be 25-30. Looking at the Wainwright numbers in House District 10, I’m seeing that 41 Republican votes were cast, and there were a total of 71 absentees in all of District 10. A prediction of 930 absentees is probably too high, when Palin got at most 71 absentees out of all of District 10 4 years ago.

Looking at Eielson, The R’s cast 86 votes, out of 4361 registered - around 2%. There were a total of 399 absentees in all of District 12. A prediction of 810 absentees for eielson might be a little high.

On the other hand, he is a war hero, and it would not surprise me to hear that there was a lot of enthusiasm for him on the bases.

Here’s my source for the 2006 numbers
http://web.archive.org/web/20060924230514/www.elections.state.ak.us/06prim/index.shtml