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NASA Still Hiding Correlation Between Solar Activity & Temperature [Reader Post - June 2009]
Flopping Aces ^ | Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009 at 6:00 am | Alec Rawls

Posted on 12/26/2009 7:12:04 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach

NASA finally mentions the Maunder Minimum in its discussion of the current prolonged solar minimum, but it STILL does not mention that the Maunder Minimum coincided with the onset of the Little Ice Age, or that the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800’s was also cold, as was the unnamed fin-de-the-1800’s minimum.

Thar she blows, the Maunder Minimum of sunspot activity:

As it has done for two years now, NASA is predicting that solar cycle 24 will ramp up tomorrow. Should that broken-clock prediction hits its hour, then NASA is also predicting that solar cycle 24 will have the modest amplitude of the 1928 cycle, indicated by the red arrow.

A look at the temperature record shows the correspondence between solar activity and temperature:

Maunder Minimum cold; Dalton minimum (just before the red thermometer-based line starts) cold; unnamed end-of-1800’s minimum (first dip in red line) cold; “grand maximum” solar activity between 1920 and 2000 warm.

NASA is acutely aware of this correspondence, but is keeping John Q Public in the dark. Now that the sun has gone quiet again, the climate is cooling again, but you will never hear it from James Hansen’s underlings at NASA:

CO2 keeps going up, but temperatures are going down. NASA frowns and scratches.

Gee you tax-payer supported SOLAR SCIENTISTS, busy gaping at “the quietest sun we’ve seen in almost a century,” if temperature is not being driven by CO2, what possibly COULD have created warming since 1910 and cooling since 2000?

Deluded people all over the world actually think the planet is still warming

This week’s sky-falling headline, courtesy of the UK Times:

Climate change is already killing 300,000 people a year in a “silent crisis” that is seriously affecting hundreds of millions more, an influential humanitarian group warned today. … The report claims that 90 per cent of the deaths are related to gradual environmental degradation caused by a warming climate.

Whatever those supposed deaths might be attributable to, they cannot be attributed to a warming climate, because THE CLIMATE IS NOT WARMING. It is cooling. Just look at any of the major temperature records:

You’d think that the Times could bother to check with England’s own climate office for something as basic as the temperature record, but the problem isn’t JUST the press. Like NASA, the Hadley Centre tries to keep the most basic climate-science facts from the public. When temperatures were rising, Hadley cried the global warming threat from the rooftops. Now that the planet is cooling, they are doing their best to cover it up. Here is Hadley’s current statement:

The year 2008 was tenth warmest on record, exceeded by 1998, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2001, 2007 and 1997

They are actually describing a jaggedly descending temperature, but with no mention of the cooling that is occurring. All they say is how warm it still is.

Even those who see themselves as trying to take the reasoned middle ground are misled about the most basic facts. A recent Popular Science editorial claimed that:

…few if any doubt any longer that the warming itself is occurring, given the worldwide rise in surface temperature…

HADcrut3 is a surface temperature record. Can PopSci name a single warming skeptic who is ignorant enough think that this record shows that “warming itself is occurring” when it very clearly shows the opposite?

Presumably they mean to refer to the fact that pretty much everybody now acknowledges that there does seem to have been a small amount of warming between the late 70’s and 2000, topped off by the El Nino spike of 1998. It did indeed take a while for many skeptics to acknowledge this small amount of warming, for the simple reason that it was not evident in satellite readings (as can be seen in the above graphic with the gray background), while the surface temperature records were known to be tainted with an upward temperature bias, thanks to growing “urban heat island” effects.

Pre-98, the alarmists were also not yet sure that temperatures were actually rising. Their theory was that CO2 should cause temperatures to rise, and they were watching like hawks for a clear warming signal that they could take as evidence that this theory was right, but it took them a while to get it. In the mid 90’s, even the most radical alarmists, like NASA’s James Hansen, were only talking about whether or not this predicted signal had been seen yet or not.

They even worked it out so they could claim to see CO2-caused warming in the absence of rising temperatures. Aerosols from coal burning are seen as having a cooling effect, so in the absence of CO2 warming effects, cooling would be expected. Thus so long as temperature readings were not actually showing global cooling, Hansen et. al. could claim that human release of CO2 was having a measurable warming effect. (See for instance, the 1995 IPCC report, summary of the science, p. 22, subhead 4: “The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate.)

With the El Nino spike, it became clear that some warming had occurred. But that was the temperature peak. Since then the surface records and the satellite records all show cooling. Thus the alarmists got essentially one data point that can be taken as supportive of their theory: the very late 90’s did show a clear warming signal. Unfortunately for them, the CO2 theory has no explanation for the rest of the temperature record.

There was no significant human production of CO2 before WWII, so the CO2 theory has no explanation for planetary warming from the Little Ice Age to the 1930s (covering about .8° of the 1°C temperature rise between the Little Ice Age and today). In contrast, the theory that solar-magnetic activity drives climate fits this emergence from Little Ice Age very well: goodbye Maunder Minimum, with hiccups at the Dalton Minimum and the fin-de-1800’s minimum.

Ditto for the post-2000 cooling: it does not fit the CO2 theory at all, but fits perfectly with the theory that climate is driven by solar activity.


TOPICS: Weather
KEYWORDS: climatechangedata; climategate; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; globalwarmingscandal; gorebullwarming
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And of course we have later news...but this is a very good article.
1 posted on 12/26/2009 7:12:06 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: Fred Nerks; SunkenCiv; NormsRevenge

Notice some of the sources....thought they had lost some data...hmmm...


2 posted on 12/26/2009 7:13:44 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; bamahead; Delacon; SteamShovel; SolitaryMan; grey_whiskers; IrishCatholic; ...
 


Beam me to Planet Gore !

3 posted on 12/26/2009 7:14:12 AM PST by steelyourfaith (Don't start the revolution without me.)
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To: steelyourfaith

Thanks,...you seem to catch everything...was going to ping you .


4 posted on 12/26/2009 7:17:37 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Very interesting article. Thanx !
5 posted on 12/26/2009 7:19:24 AM PST by steelyourfaith (Don't start the revolution without me.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

ping


6 posted on 12/26/2009 7:20:33 AM PST by GOPPachyderm
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Why are you trying to confuse people with facts and logic, this is a Moral issue remember.


7 posted on 12/26/2009 7:24:03 AM PST by eyeamok
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To: All; george76; nwrep
Related threads:

Researcher: NASA hiding climate data

The Washington Times ^ | December 3, 2009 | Stephen Dinan

Posted on Thu 03 Dec 2009 10:43:23 AM PST by george76

****************************

NASA sunspot activity prediction indicates next decade coldest in over a century [FR Exclusive]

Marshall Space Flight Center, NASA ^ | December 13, 2009 | nwrep

8 posted on 12/26/2009 7:24:11 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
In the top graph, the highest peak, around 1950, is called the "Modern Maximum". The low peak to its right is in the 1970's (remember the scary 1970's headlines about the coming Ice Age?).

Then we have two more high peaks (Global Warming), followed by a lower peak (remember the phrase "hide the decline" from the leaked emails?).

Right now we are in an extended period of low solar activity. Of course, that has nothing to do with the unusual cold and heavy snowfall...

9 posted on 12/26/2009 7:27:43 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (Public healthcare looks like it will work as well as public housing did.)
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To: PapaBear3625

Notice the source on that bottom graph.....didn’t they claim they had lost data?


10 posted on 12/26/2009 7:37:35 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Thanks for the great post.


11 posted on 12/26/2009 7:41:01 AM PST by Buffalo Head (Illigitimi non carborundum)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

All it takes is for one State to hold public trials for FRAUD against all these AGW salesman. considering Taxpayer monies have been used to perpetrate this fraud, Any State has the right to bring legal action. Considering none of these people have EVER been sworn under oath with regards to AGW, Shouldn’t the States give them the opportunity to make their case UNDER OATH and in PUBLIC. Now if they truly have lost the original data the case won’t even make it passed discovery. They will have been shown to the public to be FRAUDS. You cannot testify about evidence that doesn’t exist.


12 posted on 12/26/2009 7:57:45 AM PST by eyeamok
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To: All

Out for most of the day,...overnight to my daughters place ...High Desert locale.


13 posted on 12/26/2009 8:37:27 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

The visible disk is Spotless unlike NASAs record of lies and deception.

The Sun Today:

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind observations from the ACE satellite decreased gradually after 24/2235Z, from 380 km/s to 282 km/s at 25/1457Z. Velocities then increased to 354 km/s at 25/1708Z as the density increased to a peak of 13 p/cc. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) increased, with the total field reaching +10 nT at 25/1852Z. The southward component of the IMF ranged between -8 nT and +7 nT, with the peak of -8 nT at 25/1609Z. This activity is consistent with the arrival of the partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on 22 December.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet, with isolated unsettled periods possible at high latitudes, on day one (26 December). Quiet levels are expected on days two and three (27-28 December).


14 posted on 12/26/2009 8:45:07 AM PST by flash2368
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I went around last weekend telling every liberal friend or neighbor or coworker I could get my hands on, “Ha-ha, I just had to shovel 24 inches of global warming off of my driveway, how much did you get?” Phrased that way, it was hard for them to argue with my point.


15 posted on 12/26/2009 9:06:15 AM PST by ottbmare (I could agree wth you, but then we'd both be wrong.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

A gubamint agency hiding or playing fast and loose with facts.

I’m shocked.

That it is Nasa.. makes it all the worse.


16 posted on 12/26/2009 10:22:24 AM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. May yur bandwidth exceed your girth)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
From my understanding normal El Nino events cannot possibly cause Global Warming. A normal El Nino event is only a symptom that Global Warming could have occurred. It does not mean it did occur, only that it could have occurred. A normal El Nino simply means that normal trade wind patterns have changed due to pressure changes between the Eastern Pacific and the Western Pacific/Indian Ocean. This lack of normal equatorial trade wind flow generally means that warming waters in the equatorial region (normally they are being warmed by sunlight) will not be cooled or moved by the trade winds. The trade wind flow normally moves the sunlight warmed surface water to the west. The wind itself also transfers some of the heat energy to the atmosphere. When that wind slows or stops, El Nino occurs and the warmed surface waters stay put or expands back to the east. So the common knowledge theory that El Nino always causes Global Warming is wrong. El Nino simply means that trade winds have slowed, stopped and in some cases reversed due to atmospheric pressure differences. So if indeed warmer land temperatures did coincide across the globe with the 1998 El Nino (and who knows what records are accurate anymore) then it was not a normal El Nino. It had to be an El Nino event triggered by some other Global Warming event. Possibly underwater volcanic activity or increased green house gases such as water vapor. A normal El Nino cannot cause a net warming or Global Warming. A normal El Nino only has an affect on Heat transfer.

So that explains our present situation where a mild normal El Nino event occurs along with dramatic cooling in the US and higher then normal winter time snow fall levels. When that sunlight warmed Pacific ocean water is not being cooled and moved westward to Australia and Indonesia, the Eastern Pacific experiences higher then normal precipitation levels. This is due to the warm water evaporating and the energetic atmosphere moving back to the east. So what does this mean to the average American ? Buy a back up snow shovel cause we will be breaking snow fall records all winter. Please note that a strong El Nino could transfer a significant amount of that evaporative heat energy to the US during winter time, but our current El Nino is mild and the waters off the California coast are normal to slightly cool.

Summation

The reason the US is cold this winter is due to a prolonged Solar Minimum.

The reason the US is breaking snow fall records this winter is due to the mild El Nino and the Solar Minimum (less cosmic rays and more atmospheric water formation).

17 posted on 12/26/2009 6:23:44 PM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; ...
D0000MAGE!

Global Warming PING!

You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.

Freep-mail me to get on or off: Add me / Remove me

Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

Global Warming on Free Republic

Latest from Global Warming News Site

Latest from Greenie Watch

18 posted on 12/26/2009 6:58:10 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Don't eat your dog; eat obnoxious, liberal humans to save the planet!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Here is a new theory for you. Because we have so many Chinese and Hindus, the earth is going to wobble right out of orbit.

Rich countries must provide free abortions to these countries/sarc

Oh the loony theories of the left

19 posted on 12/26/2009 8:26:44 PM PST by dila813
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To: justa-hairyape

Correction - less cosmic rays, should read, more cosmic rays.


20 posted on 12/26/2009 9:19:23 PM PST by justa-hairyape
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