Extreme Leverage In Reverse Portends Global Systemic Crash

globaleconomicanalysis ^ | 01/23/09 | Mike "Mish" Shedlock

[TigerLikesRooster]

Extreme Leverage In Reverse Portends Global Systemic Crash

Inquiring minds are investigating a visual comparison of banks' market caps valuation as of January 20, 2009 vs. the second quarter of 2007.

Bank Market Cap Comparison

Note: I had posted a draft version of the chart that follows.
Here is the corrected copy with thanks to Financial Times Alphaville.



click on chart for sharper image
chart courtesy of JP Morgan and Bloomberg.

Extreme Leverage In Reverse

The chart is an illustration of extreme leverage in reverse.

Bear in mind that fallout from Alt-A, prime home equity, credit cards, small business, and commercial real estate are still on the way.

The global banking system is clearly insolvent as discussed in Fed and BOE Shell Games to Bailout Insolvent Banks and British banks are 'technically insolvent' (and other secrecies).

Possible Systemic Collapse

My friend BC pinged me with these thoughts:

US banks levered cash to loans at 25:1 and liabilities at 33:1 at the credit bubble peak. The long term historic average ratios are about 5-7:1, and 7-10:1 respectively.

Moreover, historically, the ratio of real estate loans to cash averaged 1.25 to 2 (!!!) on a sustained basis, whereas the ratio at the unprecedented hyper-leveraged point in 2007-2008 reached 12-13:1, with real estate loans as a share of all bank loans reaching almost 60%. Real estate loans/GDP topped out at 26-27% (!!!).

Were the banks' cash ratio to "unreal" estate loans to return to the historically sustainable range, banks would either need to (1) triple and quadruple their cash assets from $1T to $3T-$4T and/or (2) write down real estate assets commensurately or a combination thereof.

Wells Fargo is loaded to the rafters with eventually non-performing residential and commercial real estate loans in the US Pacific Northwest the last region of the country to enter the Kuznets Cycle bust to date.

Consider what virtually no growth in real estate loans combined with a tripling or quadrupling of banks' cash assets means to the real estate market and US overall investment, consumption, government receipts, and payrolls going forward.

The negative effects of bank liquidation and reverse leverage risk outright systemic collapse.

In Brink of Debt Disaster we looked at how consumer debt has the United States and the United Kingdom stand on the brink of the largest debt crisis in history. Together, these posts show the threat of an outright global systemic deflationary crash is very real.

This is not a call for a global crash, rather a warning that one could easily occur.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Ping!

[silverleaf]

That is interesting, thanks

OK, so “global systemic collapse”- what does that mean to main street?

Does it mean, no-notice, the ATM’s and credit cards just “stop working” one day? No one will take checks because they are not being accepted for deposit?
I assume this happens no-notice to the general public, as the elites prepare ahead of time. The banks are shuttered, so no access to “safe deposit boxes”

This breaks when Congress either is on a “break” or declares an emergency recess and heads for GreenBriar or other pre-selected “safe” hiding place as public order is expected to collapse with no money, swiftly disappearing food and gasoline supplies, and a fallback an collapse of local governments who are too overwhelmed to provide public order or other services??

Is this the effect of global systemic collapse?

[RSmithOpt]

If it occurs, it will most likely be the way you describe.

[TigerLikesRooster]

I think the consequence would materialize as a bank holiday, during which no bank transaction is possible for general public. I am sure it is supposed to be temporary(e.g., a couple of weeks,) but who knows? Bank holiday could create things you mentioned.

[unixfox]

Is this the effect of global systemic collapse?

You left out rioting in the streets, looting, robbing, and total mayhem.

[RegulatorCountry]

Does it mean, no-notice, the ATM’s and credit cards just “stop working” one day?

Some fine morning, after heading off to bed from a fairly "normal" day, we're going to arise, have our coffee, start getting ready to head off for another "normal" day, and nothing will work ... just like that.

This thought has haunted me for years.

[Leisler]

The private party, privately owned Federal Reserve Bank will do as it pleases, Congress or no Congress. They are running the show.

When they said they wanted a chiseling tax, Social Security, unemployment, and illegal worker cheat and financial loser Geithner. They get him.

This is why the Banks are getting the private paper money, know as Federal Reserve Bank...notes. Because it is their money, all banks in the US are controlled by the private Federal Reserve Bank.

The banks will survive, because the Fed wishes that they do.

But what about you?

What if you get wiped out?
Tough. Get on your knees and start over. When you clean yourself up, you can go to a Federal Reserve Bank, or one of their banks under different names, like Bank of American, or Citibank and borrow money at rates that will pay off these banks debts. ( you didn’t think that when these banks got this free money that THEY were the ones to pay it off, did you? Oh My God! How are THEY suppose to stay in business and even make a profit if THEY have to pay? Jeesh. Doesn’t anyone know how to play ‘stick it’ to someone else anymore? This country has gotten soft. /sarc)

Anyways, more to answer your questions. The banks are all bust. In order for them to get good, they have to find, make, manufacture new loans. If people are being thrifty, then the economy has to eat up thrifty peoples money by taxes. As you know we haven’t been good saver. You might of heard that ‘the econmy’ will get going by the end of 2009. That is when you/me are totally broke, we will have to crawl to the banks and get mortgages for anything, at any interest rates that we can. Thus the ‘economy’( not your personal economy which will be trashed along with 50 million other Americans) will beginning to ‘unfreeze’ and the whole debt/payment/rising prices/borrow to buy/debt cycle can begin again.

Nice. Isn’t it?

[Orange1998]

A poster on a financial website yesterday were making the same comments. He was saying a bank holiday "could" occur in February. I find it hard to believe.

[silverleaf]

I think it will come more like a thief in the night, as Tiger said, with the federal government announcing a “bank holiday”

This will give the government and its selected patron financiers a few extra days to flee into seclusion

I presume this scenario is part of the reason for quiet hints (not explored by the collapsed US media) about recent redeploying and reassigning US military units to US domestic security duties

Might also be what big mouth Biden alluded to as a a “manufactured” crisis that will test Obama in his first 6 months

[silverleaf]

February is when the $825 BILLION “stimulus” is supposed to hit the President’s desk

Question is, IF this “stimulus” bill passes (it sounds like the GOP will be intimidated - again- into signing on to make it a bipartisan faiure) will this prevent, delay, or coincide with, the next shoe dropping

[silverleaf]

February is when the $825 BILLION “stimulus” is supposed to hit the President’s desk

Question is, IF this “stimulus” bill passes (it sounds like the GOP will be intimidated - again- into signing on to make it a bipartisan failure) will this prevent, delay, or coincide with, the next shoe dropping

[SC Swamp Fox]

Does it mean, no-notice, the ATM’s and credit cards just “stop working” one day?

That's a scary thought. Most employers have forced their workers to use direct deposit, we have been encouraged to pay our bills on-line.

If my CU closed right after a pay-day I would be out one-half months pay. We have some money in two other banks but if they shuttered at the same time we would have no way to pay bills or buy food or gas. (Note to self: Stock up on ammo, add cash to the "Hurricane supplies".)

[silverleaf]

Yes, almost everything has become “direct deposit”

Govt checks, social security, military pay

People never see “their” money, it goes straight into...a bankrupt bank (mine is Bank Of America)

I think keeping some easy-to-touch cash onhand is becoming a good idea. Also keeping the car topped up with gas and some survival supplies (water, energy bars, candles and fire making, water purification tablets and for us - Dog food!) having road maps to get to a safe place with family support system inplace, via secondary routes, if that is an option.

Do you watch the Karl Denninger Market ticker blog? Has useful information

[GOPJ]

He was saying a bank holiday "could" occur in February. I find it hard to believe.

Where we are today would have been hard to believe 18 months ago...

[Orange1998]

The poster went on to say JP is cornering the gold market in advance of a bank holiday. The poster says its only a rumor. Did you see the move in gold friday, wow.

[Orange1998]

It is amazing in the swiftness. Lehman said they are in a strong financial position only to go out of business the following week. Iceland only took 4 days to fall apart.

[LeGrande]

I have never really understood why banks lend for mortgages. They take all the risks and get very little profit. If interest rates go up, the homeowner stays put with cheap interest rates. If interest rates go down the homeowner refinances to get the cheaper rates. If property values go up, the homeowner sells for a nice profit. If property values go down the homeowner walks away and let the Bank take the loss.

It seems like there is way too much risk for the differential in interest rate earnings compared to other types of loans.

[alexander_busek]

Iceland only took 4 days to fall apart.

So, is there rioting in the streets in Iceland? Murder, mayhem, looting? Have all of their ATMs mysteriously ceased functioning? Has martial law been declared?

Regards,

[org.whodat]

Book!! MarK!!! Requires some thought!!!