Assuming liquidity is available, I think the point we’re at now is where we’ll stay for a while, doom and gloom aside.
There are even still decent jumbo loans around. The articles make it seem as if jumbo rates suddenly went to 10.875% or something. Realistically they’re still in the low to mid 7’s for a fixed rate loan, a bit lower for ARMs.
Back in 1981 when I lived in Simi Valley, Ca. and it had been growing for years my neighbor was still building his second spec house after getting his contractor’s license three years earlier.
He made the equivalent of a year’s wages on the first house and quit an assembly line job at GM in Van Nuys with his wife quitting soon after to raise a family; by June, 1981, the house was nearing completion and his second daughter was crawling around all over his paperwork and plans.
Come November, the house was finished and on the market and he was trying to sell, he had a surprising number of prospective buyers, especially considering that the house was listed for $375,000 and surrounded by newer homes that were appraised at only $175-200 thousand.
The banks were all in a hunkered down mode and financing wa more than hard to come by. Three times a deal fell through because of buyers giving up on qualifying and his own note was due on the spec house, his own house and just about everything he was able to borrow on to get to that point.
When the bank called in his loan, the interest rate was 18.75%; he, his wife and their two children packed up and said goodbye to their house of ten years that he so wanted to save.
They landed on their feet in Fremont and both went back to work for GM at the plant to build Corollas and Geo Prizms, wiser but sadder.
When we get to that point again, wake me up and we’ll both scream.
DATE , MORTGNA
04/1971, 7.31
05/1971, 7.43
06/1971, 7.53
07/1971, 7.60
08/1971, 7.70
09/1971, 7.69
10/1971, 7.63
11/1971, 7.55
12/1971, 7.48
01/1972, 7.44
02/1972, 7.33
03/1972, 7.30
04/1972, 7.29
05/1972, 7.37
06/1972, 7.37
07/1972, 7.40
08/1972, 7.40
09/1972, 7.42
10/1972, 7.42
11/1972, 7.43
12/1972, 7.44
01/1973, 7.44
02/1973, 7.44
03/1973, 7.46
04/1973, 7.54
05/1973, 7.65
06/1973, 7.73
07/1973, 8.05
08/1973, 8.50
09/1973, 8.82
10/1973, 8.77
11/1973, 8.58
12/1973, 8.54
01/1974, 8.54
02/1974, 8.46
03/1974, 8.41
04/1974, 8.58
05/1974, 8.97
06/1974, 9.09
07/1974, 9.28
08/1974, 9.59
09/1974, 9.96
10/1974, 9.98
11/1974, 9.79
12/1974, 9.62
01/1975, 9.43
02/1975, 9.11
03/1975, 8.90
04/1975, 8.82
05/1975, 8.91
06/1975, 8.89
07/1975, 8.89
08/1975, 8.94
09/1975, 9.13
10/1975, 9.22
11/1975, 9.15
12/1975, 9.10
01/1976, 9.02
02/1976, 8.81
03/1976, 8.76
04/1976, 8.73
05/1976, 8.77
06/1976, 8.85
07/1976, 8.93
08/1976, 9.00
09/1976, 8.98
10/1976, 8.93
11/1976, 8.81
12/1976, 8.79
01/1977, 8.72
02/1977, 8.67
03/1977, 8.69
04/1977, 8.75
05/1977, 8.82
06/1977, 8.86
07/1977, 8.94
08/1977, 8.94
09/1977, 8.90
10/1977, 8.91
11/1977, 8.92
12/1977, 8.96
01/1978, 9.02
02/1978, 9.16
03/1978, 9.20
04/1978, 9.36
05/1978, 9.58
06/1978, 9.71
07/1978, 9.74
08/1978, 9.78
09/1978, 9.76
10/1978, 9.86
11/1978, 10.11
12/1978, 10.35
01/1979, 10.39
02/1979, 10.41
03/1979, 10.43
04/1979, 10.50
05/1979, 10.69
06/1979, 11.04
07/1979, 11.09
08/1979, 11.09
09/1979, 11.30
10/1979, 11.64
11/1979, 12.83
12/1979, 12.90
01/1980, 12.88
02/1980, 13.04
03/1980, 15.28
04/1980, 16.33
05/1980, 14.26
06/1980, 12.71
07/1980, 12.19
08/1980, 12.56
09/1980, 13.20
10/1980, 13.79
11/1980, 14.21
12/1980, 14.79
01/1981, 14.90
02/1981, 15.13
03/1981, 15.40
04/1981, 15.58
05/1981, 16.40
06/1981, 16.70
07/1981, 16.83
08/1981, 17.29
09/1981, 18.16
10/1981, 18.45
11/1981, 17.83
12/1981, 16.92
01/1982, 17.40
02/1982, 17.60
03/1982, 17.16
04/1982, 16.89
05/1982, 16.68
06/1982, 16.70
07/1982, 16.82
08/1982, 16.27
09/1982, 15.43
10/1982, 14.61
11/1982, 13.83
12/1982, 13.62
01/1983, 13.25
02/1983, 13.04
03/1983, 12.80
04/1983, 12.78
05/1983, 12.63
06/1983, 12.87
07/1983, 13.42
08/1983, 13.81
09/1983, 13.73
10/1983, 13.54
11/1983, 13.44
12/1983, 13.42
01/1984, 13.37
02/1984, 13.23
03/1984, 13.39
04/1984, 13.65
05/1984, 13.94
06/1984, 14.42
07/1984, 14.67
08/1984, 14.47
09/1984, 14.35
10/1984, 14.13
11/1984, 13.64
12/1984, 13.18
01/1985, 13.08
02/1985, 12.92
03/1985, 13.17
04/1985, 13.20
05/1985, 12.91
06/1985, 12.22
07/1985, 12.03
08/1985, 12.19
09/1985, 12.19
10/1985, 12.14
11/1985, 11.78
12/1985, 11.26
01/1986, 10.88
02/1986, 10.71
03/1986, 10.08
04/1986, 9.94
05/1986, 10.14
06/1986, 10.68
07/1986, 10.51
08/1986, 10.20
09/1986, 10.01
10/1986, 9.97
11/1986, 9.70
12/1986, 9.31
01/1987, 9.20
02/1987, 9.08
03/1987, 9.04
04/1987, 9.83
05/1987, 10.60
06/1987, 10.54
07/1987, 10.28
08/1987, 10.33
09/1987, 10.89
10/1987, 11.26
11/1987, 10.65
12/1987, 10.65
01/1988, 10.43
02/1988, 9.89
03/1988, 9.93
04/1988, 10.20
05/1988, 10.46
06/1988, 10.46
07/1988, 10.43
08/1988, 10.60
09/1988, 10.48
10/1988, 10.30
11/1988, 10.27
12/1988, 10.61
01/1989, 10.73
02/1989, 10.65
03/1989, 11.03
04/1989, 11.05
05/1989, 10.77
06/1989, 10.20
07/1989, 9.88
08/1989, 9.99
09/1989, 10.13
10/1989, 9.95
11/1989, 9.77
12/1989, 9.74
01/1990, 9.90
02/1990, 10.20
03/1990, 10.27
04/1990, 10.37
05/1990, 10.48
06/1990, 10.16
07/1990, 10.04
08/1990, 10.10
09/1990, 10.18
10/1990, 10.18
11/1990, 10.01
12/1990, 9.67
01/1991, 9.64
02/1991, 9.37
03/1991, 9.50
04/1991, 9.49
05/1991, 9.47
06/1991, 9.62
07/1991, 9.57
08/1991, 9.24
09/1991, 9.01
10/1991, 8.86
11/1991, 8.71
12/1991, 8.50
01/1992, 8.43
02/1992, 8.76
03/1992, 8.94
04/1992, 8.85
05/1992, 8.67
06/1992, 8.51
07/1992, 8.13
08/1992, 7.98
09/1992, 7.92
10/1992, 8.09
11/1992, 8.31
12/1992, 8.22
01/1993, 8.02
02/1993, 7.68
03/1993, 7.50
04/1993, 7.47
05/1993, 7.47
06/1993, 7.42
07/1993, 7.21
08/1993, 7.11
09/1993, 6.92
10/1993, 6.83
11/1993, 7.16
12/1993, 7.17
01/1994, 7.06
02/1994, 7.15
03/1994, 7.68
04/1994, 8.32
05/1994, 8.60
06/1994, 8.40
07/1994, 8.61
08/1994, 8.51
09/1994, 8.64
10/1994, 8.93
11/1994, 9.17
12/1994, 9.20
01/1995, 9.15
02/1995, 8.83
03/1995, 8.46
04/1995, 8.32
05/1995, 7.96
06/1995, 7.57
07/1995, 7.61
08/1995, 7.86
09/1995, 7.64
10/1995, 7.48
11/1995, 7.38
12/1995, 7.20
01/1996, 7.03
02/1996, 7.08
03/1996, 7.62
04/1996, 7.93
05/1996, 8.07
06/1996, 8.32
07/1996, 8.24
08/1996, 8.00
09/1996, 8.23
10/1996, 7.92
11/1996, 7.62
12/1996, 7.60
01/1997, 7.82
02/1997, 7.65
03/1997, 7.90
04/1997, 8.14
05/1997, 7.94
06/1997, 7.69
07/1997, 7.50
08/1997, 7.48
09/1997, 7.43
10/1997, 7.29
11/1997, 7.21
12/1997, 7.10
01/1998, 6.99
02/1998, 7.04
03/1998, 7.13
04/1998, 7.14
05/1998, 7.14
06/1998, 7.00
07/1998, 6.95
08/1998, 6.92
09/1998, 6.72
10/1998, 6.71
11/1998, 6.87
12/1998, 6.72
01/1999, 6.79
02/1999, 6.81
03/1999, 7.04
04/1999, 6.92
05/1999, 7.15
06/1999, 7.55
07/1999, 7.63
08/1999, 7.94
09/1999, 7.82
10/1999, 7.85
11/1999, 7.74
12/1999, 7.91
01/2000, 8.21
02/2000, 8.32
03/2000, 8.24
04/2000, 8.15
05/2000, 8.52
06/2000, 8.29
07/2000, 8.15
08/2000, 8.03
09/2000, 7.91
10/2000, 7.80
11/2000, 7.75
12/2000, 7.38
01/2001, 7.03
02/2001, 7.05
03/2001, 6.95
04/2001, 7.08
05/2001, 7.15
06/2001, 7.16
07/2001, 7.13
08/2001, 6.95
09/2001, 6.82
10/2001, 6.62
11/2001, 6.66
12/2001, 7.07
01/2002, 7.00
02/2002, 6.89
03/2002, 7.01
04/2002, 6.99
05/2002, 6.81
06/2002, 6.65
07/2002, 6.49
08/2002, 6.29
09/2002, 6.09
10/2002, 6.11
11/2002, 6.07
12/2002, 6.05
01/2003, 5.92
02/2003, 5.84
03/2003, 5.75
04/2003, 5.81
05/2003, 5.48
06/2003, 5.23
07/2003, 5.63
08/2003, 6.26
09/2003, 6.15
10/2003, 5.95
11/2003, 5.93
12/2003, 5.88
01/2004, 5.74
02/2004, 5.64
03/2004, 5.45
04/2004, 5.83
05/2004, 6.27
06/2004, 6.29
07/2004, 6.06
08/2004, 5.87
09/2004, 5.75
10/2004, 5.72
11/2004, 5.73
12/2004, 5.75
01/2005, 5.71
02/2005, 5.63
03/2005, 5.93
04/2005, 5.86
05/2005, 5.72
06/2005, 5.58
07/2005, 5.70
08/2005, 5.82
09/2005, 5.77
10/2005, 6.07
11/2005, 6.33
12/2005, 6.27
01/2006, 6.15
02/2006, 6.25
03/2006, 6.32
04/2006, 6.51
05/2006, 6.60
06/2006, 6.68
07/2006, 6.76
08/2006, 6.52
09/2006, 6.40
10/2006, 6.36
11/2006, 6.24
12/2006, 6.14
01/2007, 6.22
02/2007, 6.29
03/2007, 6.16
04/2007, 6.18
05/2007, 6.26
06/2007, 6.66
07/2007, 6.70