Looks like it could get pretty rough today.
L
Posted on 05/05/2007 6:54:36 AM PDT by janetjanet998
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL NEB...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN SD...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEB...CENTRAL KS...AND NORTHWEST OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES FROM ND TO TX...
...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL NEB...
...CENTRAL PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY...AS 80-90 KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SOUTHEAST CO WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEB BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND INTO EXTREME WESTERN OK. POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SOMEWHAT LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...12Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWS THAT ENVIRONMENT IS EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. COMBINATION OF WEAK HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMOVE CAP AND ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT RELATIVELY EARLY TODAY.
...CENTRAL NEB/KS... PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE FROM WESTERN NEB INTO CENTRAL KS. ACTIVITY MAY BE ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR REPEAT INITIATION AS STORMS MOVE QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THIS REGION SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG/...LOW LCL HEIGHTS...HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2/ ALSO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED...STRONG TORNADOES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEB/KS OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...OK/TX... LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE AFTER DARK FROM WESTERN OK INTO WEST TX. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS...WHERE HIGH CAPE VALUES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX THIS EVENING.
with live close up radar and info from both professional and amature meteorologists and stormchasers
ping
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS INTO SW...S CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 051352Z - 051445Z
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES LIKELY BY MIDDAY. 12Z SOUNDING FROM DODGE CITY INDICATES POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SURFACE CYCLONE. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG... AND THIS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A MID-LEVEL CAP IS PRESENT...BUT GENERALLY WEAK AND IT MAY NOT TAKE LONG FOR THE INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO ROCKIES. DRY LINE NEAR/WEST OF GARDEN CITY INTO THE GOODLAND AREA MAY PROVIDE ONE FOCUS...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANOTHER...SOUTHWEST OF CONCORDIA INTO DRY LINE INTERSECTION NEAR MCCOOK NEB. GIVEN LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BENEATH 50-70 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH MID DAY.
Stay safe, FRiends!
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS WATCH AREA AS AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING ALONG E OF DRY LINE...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACK/VIOLENT TORNADOS. AS DRY LINE REMAINS WRN KS THRU THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY OFF THE DRY LINE THRU THE EVENING HOURS
Looks like it could get pretty rough today.
L
Why did this get moved to chat?
No the question is: WHY THE HELL DID THIS GET MOVED TO CHAT?!
Please provide the source and working link for the article you posted in Response #4.
bmp
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