The republican half, Ed Goeas and the Tarrance group, predict the opposite: http://www.tarrance.com/files/Tarrance-Group-Projection.pdf
Lets see who is right.
The Republican guy had the sense to go with what the Battleground poll said. Of course he is right. What's up with some Dimwit pollster ignoring her own poll to predict a Kerry win. That's like saying, I have so little faith in my ability to do my job that I'll take my personal opinions over what my own poll says.