2008 Republican Race

draftowens08

[draftowens08]

New to the community here. Looks like a fun place to talk.

I thought I'd start a discussion of possible GOP candidates to replace (hopefully) W. To start, here is a list off the top of my head:

Chance of running in ()

Dick Cheney (highly unlikely) Colin Powell (highly unlikely) Condi Rice (below average) George Pataki (high) Jeb Bush (high) Bill Owens (high) Rick Santorum (average) Bill Frist (average) Rudy Giuliani (below average) George Allen (average)

My favorties are Bush and Owens. I'd be shocked to see either Cheney or Powell run. Rice, if she didn't run, would be an interesting VP candidate. Imagine how angry the Dems would be that a Republican would be the first black/woman VP. Pataki wouldn't go over well in the south. Bush has all the fundraising power in the world. I don't think he has the skills of his brother though. Owens is by far my favorite. Without a doubt the best governor in the country. Santorum and Frist are probably VP candidates. Giuliani probably isn't qualified IMO but a well known and liked figure. Allen is probably a VP candidate also. Plus I'm not sure congressmen can do well in presidential election anymore.

Thoughts?

[Hoverbug]

I'd duck if I were you.

Hb

[fhayek]

Where's the small "TM" after your screen name

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Must pay attention. I don't know who the heck Bill Owens is. Condi Rice has a great chance of being the (wo)MAN in 2008. Her nomination would change the face of politics for generations to come.

[William McKinley]

In 2008 I would love to see Owens run. I also think Jeb would do well, although I can see him facing resistance just because of him being a Bush.

[LonePalm]

Welcome Aboard.

You might check out the HTML sandbox and lurk a bit to become acclimated to the FR culture.

I generally agree with your post but would like to wait a while before worrying about 2008.

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

[Mike Darancette]

Rice, if she didn't run, would be an interesting VP candidate.

It may be sooner for Rice than you think.

[Paul8148]

Jeb chances went when he lost in 94. He would of went in 2000.

Bill Owens is a possibitly. Also Connie can run. To bad there is not a Repulibcan Gov in Michagn or Penn right now. I can see Chuck Hagel from Nebs.

[William McKinley]

Hagel certainly wouldn't get my support in the primaries. I'd rather someone who is more dependable, and less of a McCain advocate.

[eleni121]

Rick Santorum or Tom Delay.

Pataki - NOT!

[NonValueAdded]

LP, now is a good time to worry about 2008. As much as I like and admire Dick Cheney, GWB needs to have a different VP in 2004 to groom them for the next term. I can see a Special Advisor to the President role for DC. Otherwise, we'll have our own version of the 9 dwarfs in '08. It is never too early to formulate the strategerie.

[LonePalm]

I would rather Bush, Cheney, and Rove focus on destroying the Democrats as an effective party in THIS election so that they won't be a factor in the NEXT election.

If we play our cards right, it won't matter who we run or they run, the 2008 election will go our way. And so will 2012, 2016, 2020....

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

[WFTR]

You've made an interesting post at an interesting time. I don't know enough about Bill Owens to like or dislike him. If he considered making a serious run in 2008, I'd look at him closely as I would almost any other candidate.

I have to disagree with NVA and others who would have us pick a candidate before the primaries. I think a good, competitive primary is good for the party and for the country. The last truly competitive primary for the GOP was in '80, and that primary produced our best president in many decades. The rush to force a candidate on the party before the primaries start just adds to people's being disillusioned with the whole process.

I think we'll have to look closely at possibilities during the next two to three years. I think President Bush should keep Vice-President Cheney for the next term. He won't be a candidate in '08, and his being VP will keep someone else from becoming the heir apparent too quickly. Allen and Gilmore in Virginia are both good possibilities for '08. Frist might make a run. I can't remember the names right now, but I'd look at some of the Class of '02 senators who were elected last year. Wasn't Jim Talent of Missouri a former governor? If so, he'd be a very strong candidate.

WFTR
Bill

[NonValueAdded]

I'm not saying to pick a candidate per se, although I concede giving the VP slot is anointing an heir apparent. But what is wrong with giving a leading choice some OJT?

My concern is that we are not doing much to develop a well-stocked field from which to choose. Look at all the ground-work being done by the dwarfs with little hope of succeeding. I'd like to see more grooming going on so we are not starting from a dead stop in '05.

Remember, in '08 the situation will be reversed with Hillary! getting the RAT's nod by acclimation and we will have the uphill battle. Meanwhile, the Pubs will have knock down drag out fights for ascendancy with a possible third party run by a certain senator with disdain for the first amendment (unless he plans to be her veep).

[NonValueAdded]

Sorry, forgot to include that while RR was indeed the best candidate for 1980 and a fantastic president, the nation was introduced to him in the 1976 election cycle and he did not win that nomination. We are not learning about any potential candidates in the 2004 cycle.

Maybe we will see some cabinet moves early into GWB's second term that will calm my fears. We'll see.

[WFTR]

You make some very good points, but I'd modify them slightly.

First, I agree that the country was exposed to Ronald Reagan before 1980, but I think the real substance of that exposure was his eight years as governor of California. He had real executive experience even though he had no experience in the federal government. The 1976 election made a few more people familiar with him, but his real strength and recognition came from being a two-term governor of California. However, I agree with your point that there is no one like him who has been a successful two-term governor of a large state.

[WFTR]

Secondly, I don't think the dwarfs are being hurt by their lack of experience. Generally, governors are seen as the best choices to move to the presidency because both are executive positions. In this case, the governor in the race has moved to the head of the field. I don't think Dean is hurt at all by his lack of experience in DC. In some ways, it would be nice to point to experience that would show that a GOP candidate already knew the job, but I think that factor is overrated.

Thirdly, I don't think that the primary has to be an ugly knock-down, drag-out event as long as people campaign with a reasonable amount of dignity. I don't remember things being all that ugly in '96 when Dole faced five or six challengers. Things were ugly in 2000 primarily because people who disagreed with then-Governor Bush on some point felt that their concerns were being ignored in the rush to select a nominee without considering all of the issues. I don't remember the '80 primary being all that ugly either, but I admit that I didn't follow it as closely.

Finally, I'm not at all worried about McCain in 2008. I think he's looked to be in poor health for some time, and I won't be surprised if his health forces him into retirement from all politics by 2008. If he did run as a third-party candidate, I'm not sure that he wouldn't hurt the Democrats as much as he'd hurt the Republicans. Many of the people who like his ideas are liberals. They won't be voting for a Republican under any circumstances, but McCain might keep them from voting for Hillary.

WFTR
Bill