On April 19th or 20th comes the Bitcoin halving.
Three out of Four times it has happened whatever the price of Bitcoin is at the halving it doubles in 18 or 19 days.
Oh and for the record this is the first Bull Run where we hit all time highs before the halving. Probably because of BlackRock, Fidelity, State Street, etc... All 9 ETFs are buying up the maximum coins they can every day. Ditto Micro Strategy that borrowed 700 million to buy more Bitcoin, and even countries like El Salvador, Argentina and United Arab Emirates.
Those are the anniversaries of Waco, Oklahoma City, Columbine, Hitler’s birthday, and weed celebration day.
The significant gains on the halving happen 4-6 months AFTER the event. So, the date in April traditionally would see a peak in prices in November/December.
The time around it is likely to be a sell the news moment because lots of noobs think it will double that week.
Of course…the ETF inflows are sucking up the existing supply very quickly. That is screwing with all of the “traditional” market predictors.
We will see how it goes.
Yet it is backed by nothing, except faith. At least the fiat currencies in the world are backed by the power and military of the backing nation.
Don’t get me wrong. You can make a lot of money with bitcoin. And people made a lot of money with Tulip bulbs. But it’s all about getting out before it collapses - and then comes back - and then collapses again.
Don’t get me wrong. I understand that it may endure. I just don’t believe an investment that is based on nothing but “faith” and the “greater fool” concept will survive in the end. Maybe history will change. I just don’t personally believe it will.
Time will tell. Especially in the next few years (see tag line)
I was under the impression that there was a finite number of bitcoins. Something like every prime number under 32 or was it 64 bits was a bitcoin ID. When all the bitcoins had been mined there could be no more.
So how can they double the number of them just like that? Do they add extra bits to the ID’s?
Obviously getting the first million prime numbers is easier than getting the 2nd million.
One way around that would be to have “Series A” and “Series B” bitcoins — but then as new coins are mined, it would be easy to get the ID of the coin in the other series.