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To: SpeedyInTexas

Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 20, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].

-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/

-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/

==
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk

The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.

==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s

Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.

The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.

==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ

What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.

==
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc

Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.

==
-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4


-—> Military history, SCW, OSINT, space, electric cars. NATO/EU supporter. Bellingcat and Oryx Blog contributor: <——
https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ


Extra:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Gains In Bakhmut, Talk Of Imminent Fall Swirls
After months of carnage, there are indications that Russian forces control all but the last few blocks of what’s left of Bakhmut.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russia-gains-in-bakhmut-talk-of-imminent-fall-swirls


Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

[ HIMARS Raid |We Targeted Underground Bases | HIMARS Strike Destroys Russian Secret Underground Base ]

••Day 451: May 20

Today Ukrainians conducted a series of very successful HIMARS strikes.

As mentioned last time, the activation of Ukrainian HIMARS crews is explained by the relocation of Russian troops to the Bakhmut direction because it creates a perfect opportunity for identifying, tracking, and destroying enemy forces concentrations.

The target of the first strike once again became Mariupol. Local residents reported hearing several explosions. One photo clearly shows the aftermath of the air defense work.

The picture was quickly analyzed for geolocation, and after determining from which building a person took a photo and determining the direction of the trajectory, it became clear that Russian air defense was shooting down the rockets near the industrial area Azovstal.

This is where Russians reportedly use a lot of facilities as warehouses for equipment. In the meantime, more information became available about yesterday’s strike.

Yesterday, I showed you that Ukrainians hit unspecified buildings near the airfield. Today satellite footage became available of this area, showing that HIMARS rockets entered the center of the building.

Ukrainian sources reported that there was an underground facility that was used as a high-level command post of the Russian forces that are operating in the Vuhledar and Zaporizhzhia areas. The Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor reported that 24 troops were killed and 37 were wounded.

As a result of strikes on other facilities, Russians also lost a lot of vehicles of various types: from cars to APCs, because today local residents noticed how Russians were transporting the destroyed machinery through the city.

Another target of another strike became Tokmak. Local residents reported hearing multiple explosions, which was later confirmed by the Russian Appointed Head of the region. He stated that there were at least 2 explosions and that more information would become available later.

HIMARS strikes were also recorded in the Donetsk region. Russian independent investigative outlet reported that a Ukrainian HIMARS strike destroyed up to 10 T-90 tanks east of Marinka.

Overall, it looks like by destabilizing the situation on the Bakhmut’s flanks and forcing Russians to send reinforcements, Ukrainians managed to destroy more heavy equipment during the relocation than during the storming operation of the flanks that Russians tried to reinforce.

And the frequency and intensity of HIMARS strikes will continue to increase, especially as Norway and the UK recently agreed to supply Ukraine with 8 artillery systems M270, which is like HIMARS but has twice as many rockets.

When it comes to Bakhmut itself, after another night of surviving some of the most intense shelling with incendiary munitions, some Ukrainian soldiers reported that the last units that were still present on the outskirts of Bakhmut finally received an order to withdraw to Ivanivske.

This is corroborated by multiple videos of Ukrainians driving out of the southern outskirts towards Ivanivske and also by the fact that Russians are mostly shelling the tree lines between Bakhmut and Ivanivske.

The Head of the Wager Group, Prigozhin, made a video saying that today, after 224 days of continuous storming operations, the Battle for Bakhmut has ended.

He admitted that Ukrainian fighters put up immense resistance and that in 5 days he planned to transfer the responsibility for the region to the regular Russian army and withdraw to the deep rear to heal and replenish from the damage incurred.

At this stage, we don’t know whether the Wagner Group will be allowed to withdraw or whether the Russian Ministry of Defense will once again threaten Prigozhin with charges of treason in case he leaves his position.

In any case, the first Battle for Bakhmut ended, and the most important question is what comes next.

Some analysts are saying that now, with the city secured, Russian forces will easily recapture the ground around Bakhmut. However, if we look at the topographic map, we can see that the ground around Bakhmut is actually tactical heights, which took Russians months to take, especially in the south.

Recent footage from the Khromove region clearly shows that the city is located in the valley, meaning that Russians would need to fight from a very disadvantageous position.

That is why many Ukrainian fighters are calling the Russian victory a Pyrrhic victory - Russians got so focused on the city and the idea of declaring the whole city taken that they lost all tactical heights in the process.

Now as Ukrainians have almost secured all tactical heights in front of Chasiv Yar, they can either continue the movement along the ridges to take Bakhmut into a pocket or stop here and conduct defensive operations.

Unlike Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar is located on a hill, not a valley, which means that storming Chasiv Yar will likely be much more difficult than storming Bakhmut.

But it looks like Ukrainians decided not to stop. The fighters on the ground continue reporting advances on the flanks, especially south of Bakhmut.

Here, after securing this huge piece of territory, Ukrainians continued reporting about securing from 100 to 150 meters every day.

Some military analysts are calling it a Pyrrhic victory as well, but for a different reason. They said that while Russian forces allocated their best forces to fight in the Battle for Soledar, Battle for Bakhmut, and now Bakhmut’s flanks, Ukrainians never engaged their strategic reserves.

And this is entirely correct because the Ukrainian 9th and 10th Corps continue to stay in the deep rear and prepare for large-scale offensive actions.

This puts Russians in significant danger because, while their most capable units have been degraded in battles of no strategic significance, Ukrainians have been sending their most capable troops overseas for intense training, and they have been accumulating Western equipment to equip these forces.

The fact that these reserves have not yet been engaged, suggests that Ukrainians are yet to deliver their main blow.


https://www.youtube.com/@DenysDavydov
Denys says:
[ How They See It | Bakhmut Captured | Wagner Captured Bakhmut And Will Run From It in Five Days ]

••Bakhmut:
Russia now has all of Bakhmut, except for one tiny piece. Because they do not have the troops or other resources to hold the ten for long, Prigozhin announced fro the 2nd time he would withdraw his forces on the 25th of May.

The big advance of the Wagners yesterday was because the UA withdrew from that area. Wagners took around 70,000 casualties in the process of taking most of Bakhmut.

Prigozhin said taking the city is not as important as defending it.

UA Command confirmed the mission for now is to encircle the city from the north and the south flanks. Prigozhin sees that, and that is why he wants to withdraw to the deep rear, allowing the RGF to an assume his positions.

There are 3 possible scenerios
1. P lied again and the PMC will continue to assault forward to Chasiv Yar. But the UA is pushing on the flanks, and the PMC needs more troops and weapons to go forward.

2. The Russians will go into the total defense mode. UA assault is slowing down on the flanks and may not be able to penetrate the Russian defenses further. This is the most likely scenario.

3. The best one is that the PMC will remain in defense of the town, and the UA will successful continue the town’s encirclement. This is just a local offensive and serves to fix a lot of RGF troops in the area.

==
Avdiivka:
Even more important than Bakhmut. The Russians moved forward on the north flank taking some fields up to the RR line in their Krasnohorivika area. There are 2 important roads leading from the city. This could be an area where the PMC might move.

==
There are now 60 private armies in Russia. All of them illegal. At some point because of the conflicts like that between Wagners and the RGF High Command, these armies could start to fight each other.

==
Ukraine expects to receive 40-70 F-16s in the fall. There are plenty of pilots available in the UA Air Force.

==
Crimea:
There is now 3-D model available for Putin’s Bunker.

==
Netherlands canceled the deal to send 40 F-16s to Drakon.

==
Tokamak had several explosions and could be their first target of the UA offensive.

==
China no longer seems to plan a road connecting through Russia, and now plans a RR between Beijing and Europe through Iran and Turkey.

==
Russia, after its “victory” in Bakhmut, now projects on a map of taking Europe up to Germany on a line from Munich to the Baltic Sea.


Denys Davydov Telegram Channel
https://t.me/s/pilotblog

••More CNN fake news:
The United States is ready to provide Ukraine with LGM-30G Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles, but on the condition that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not strike at the territory of Russia

As a result of a night strike, the Defense Forces successfully hit the headquarters of one of the occupiers’ units in the city of Berdyansk - StratCom of the Armed Forces. The losses of the enemy are specified.

An explosion occurred at the Kacha airfield in Crimea: a Mi-8 military helicopter from the 318th regiment was damaged, - RBC citing sources. The incident took place around midnight.


16 posted on 05/21/2023 9:27:56 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: PIF

-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk

The Russian military, the second largest military
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BTTT


25 posted on 05/21/2023 11:06:05 AM PDT by Delta 21 (MAGA Republican is my pronoun.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies ]

To: PIF; FtrPilot; blitz128
"Netherlands canceled the deal to send 40 F-16s to Drakon."

When those F-16s arrive in the Ukraine, they are going to be armed.


36 posted on 05/21/2023 1:44:39 PM PDT by BeauBo
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To: PIF

“There are now 60 private armies in Russia. All of them illegal. At some point... these armies could start to fight each other.”

The day grows steadily closer...


37 posted on 05/21/2023 1:47:02 PM PDT by BeauBo
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