Ukraine: military situation update with maps - Mar 26, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
-—> Combined Arms Breach, what UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
[Ukrainians Lure Russians Into a Kill Zone. We Knew They Would Do It: Forest Trap/Kill Zone]
••Day 396: March 26
Today a lot of news is coming from the East.
Here, despite increased focus on the urban fighting, Wagner forces are not abandoning attempts to cut supplies to Ukrainian troops and encircle the whole Bakhmut garrison. After losing a foothold in the Ivanisvke forest, Russians immediately tried to recapture it, however, for that, they had to pass through a bottleneck where Ukrainians had already been waiting for them.
Last time I told you that after Ukrainians pushed Russians further from the Ivanisvske highway, they switched their focus to alleviating the pressure on the Khromove highway. I also told you that despite the fact that Ukrainian managed to recapture several important positions, this was just the beginning, as Russians established multiple positions in each tree line in front of the road.
The freshest reports suggest that Ukrainians increased the number of assaults here even more. Recent footage reveals how Ukrainians are conducting artillery preparation of multiple Russian positions in the tree lines across the fields simultaneously.
[Image: tree line showing 4 strikes - this is from the video in color posted by PIF and Speedy. “Hell on Earth.”]
Russian forces are trying to retaliate and even launch assaults on Ukrainian positions, however, when it comes to Bakhmut’s flanks, here Ukrainians are using fresh troops that are constantly being rotated in Chasiv Yar.
Ukrainian 54th Mechanized Brigade showed how they repelled one of such Russian assaults. Judging by the footage, it looks like they were spotted earlier than they expected, faced overwhelming fire, and tried to hide behind a big tree, but eventually, the whole squad was killed.
[Image: blackened & blasted tree with UA troop standing next to it, surrounded by 5 dead Orcs.]
Ukrainians have also conducted a successful counterattack on the Sloviansk highway near Zaliznianske. As you might have noticed, since Russians switched their focus to the city, the activity in this region has noticeably decreased. Ukrainians noticed that Wagners also reduced support for this group and conducted a mechanized counterattack.
Ukrainian 30th Mechanized Brigade showed how they completely annihilated the Russian strong point with tank fire and recaptured this section of the highway. And this a very important development, because if we look at the topographic map, we can see that this is one of the highest points in the region.
[Image: drone view looking down a tree lined road with dead Orcs and armor in the distance. Lots of smoke. UA tank at bottom firing. Car on left shoulder in middle.]
While Ukrainians have been actively reducing the area under Russian control in the northern part of the region, Wagner forces tried to recapture what they lost in the south and conducted a counterattack.
Geolocated footage reveals that the Wagner assault unit tried to cross this narrow section of the forest to assault Ivansivske, but as it turned out, such a narrow space was perfect for establishing fire control, so they stepped right in the artillery kill zone and were quickly destroyed.
[Image: Drone IR view of forest with 12 dead Orcs.]
Russians made one more assault in the direction of Ivaniske road, although this time, it was on the outskirts of Bakhmut. Here, Russian forces assumed positions in one of the few high-rise buildings south of the road to provide cover and allow the assault unit to penetrate Ukrainian defenses.
Geolocated video shows that Ukrainians successfully targeted this firing point and suppressed Russian fire, which resulted in rapid exposure of the assault unit. Judging by the available materials, Ukrainians killed at least 22 Wagners, and the rest ran away, abandoning their armored vehicle.
[Image: Waving UA troop with ATGM weapon foreground, distance is large rectangle building with tower in right front. Left side of building has large explosion covering an entire wing.]
Despite the ongoing clashes, Ukrainians are still using the Ivanivske highway to deliver small batches of ammunition, although, as seen from the video, in order to drive through the region faster than Russian artillery can respond, they are driving at around 140 km/h [89 mph] on the road with many obstacles.
In the southern part of the city, the Ukrainian 1st Border Detachment continues to hold this small salient. As mentioned previously, Wagner forces are desperately trying to encircle this group of forces and deploying disproportionately many assault units to carry out this mission. Ukrainians are using this opportunity to track and inflict losses on the second line.
The footage shows how a Ukrainian drone operator works in coordination with an artillery crew, and as a result, they detected and destroyed one house with at least a dozen Russians near the lake, another house with Russians near the graveyard, and one more house where they delivered ammunition.
When it comes to the eastern part of the city, Russian forces managed to advance along the whole line of contact. Geolocated combat footage revealed how Russians are shelling with artillery a high-rise building with Ukrainians in the central part of the city. This suggests that Russians fully captured the school and started moving further.
A bit to the north, after several weeks of very costly attempts to ford the river and gain a foothold near garages, Russian forces finally managed to do it. Geolocated footage shows heavy fights in this area, and many sources say that, for now, the area remains contested.
Russian forces also made advances on the territory of the AZOM industrial complex. Here, Wagner forces confirmed that they established control over two more sections of the complex. Russian news released a report showing the factory shops and previous Ukrainian positions.
Overall, Russians are gaining ground in the area of the least tactical significance. The most important sector is the highways, which is exactly where Russians tried to develop their success at first to encircle the city, but so far, Ukrainians have regained the initiative in this region and are slowly pushing Russians back.
The sector of medium significance is stable, and no party has gained any ground. The area of lowest significance is the only place where Russians are allowed to gain ground. The reason why this sector has the lowest significance is that here Russians have no chance of taking any group into a pocket - they are just slowly advancing at a very high cost, and at the expense of their flanks, which facilitates a safer Ukrainian withdrawal.
Lt. Commander of the 240th Airborne Assault Regiment, Lisitsky. He was the commander that encircled the UA back in 2014. This was an important kill for the UA. UA commander back then were not very skilled and one way or another allowed themselves to be encircled. Instead of surrendering, they chose to break through and suffered heavy losses.
==
PMC has gained MoD assurances that they will help support PMC’s flanks with reinforcements.
==
As an example of Russia propaganda manipulation of Western media, Denys references this story:
Preparations for ‘de-occupation’: Annexed Crimea not forgotten by Ukraine
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/26/europe/war-in-crimea-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html
The Russians lifted a sentence from that article and used it as propaganda: “Reclaiming Crimea may seem like an unlikely quest for Ukraine ...” turning it into a negative “Return of Crimea is highly unlikely ...”
==
Russian commander, Rusta Moradev was dismissed. He was good for Ukraine because he was there one who tried take Palvaka, with over 1,000 dead troops, and was in command of the Vuhledar attacks where Russian lost more than 130 pieces of armor and was then promoted. But, Russian public outcry got him dismissed - perhaps only temporarily.
==
Russia’s MoD claims that its EW assets diverted a Ukrainian drone which then landed in a residential area in Russia causing a huge explosion. Drone was on its way to some military target, maybe even in Moscow - UA has a very limited supply of that sort of drone.
==
Russian journalist goes on the front line to show how self-propelled artillery 2S1 Gvozdika works. Usually fire 6 rounds and then move. But no. Maybe they were showing off for the media. Passing troops filmed in vehicle pointed to the UA drone, but ... they were too far away to stop and explain to their fellow soldiers.
So journalist goes inside the 2S1 to film them loading a shell then went outside. Just then, a round penetrated the vehicle at an angle from the top to the bottom and exploded. It left only a single ~3” long hole shaped like an ‘8’ on the right side frontal plate just below the driver’s hatch cover. Everyone runs away. Other than the hole, the vehicle is largely undamaged.
==
The Russian unit who filmed themselves complaining that they were went to the front without anything, and were treated to friendly fire, if they retreated, named the units, commanders and personnel responsible for the death squads. According to their documents, they were supposed to be in Russian training, not on the frontline. They do not have their personal official army documents, and if they are killed or maimed there will be no help for their relatives. Video is 7.5 minutes.
==
Bakhmut: foreign independant sources report the UA is losing up to 200 troops a day.
==
Adiviika: Russia retreated little bit on both there north and south sides due to UA counterattacks. Town evacuated of civilians.
In this 35-minute call, both men who appear to be friends discuss the current affairs in Russia and slam Putin and Russian leadership, amply using curse words.
This segment pieced together and translated by us contains the juiciest parts. In the rest of the call, men complain about sanctions, which affected both personally.
While Mr. Prigozhin denied that this call happened and claimed it was a deepfake made using neural networks, he later commented by saying “Let’s start with the fact that there is such a thing as private life. People in a private conversation can talk about anything”, but stated he “couldn’t remember such a call happening.
The Russian audience does not appear as convinced, however - a poll ran by one prominent Russian separatist Oleg Tsaryov on Telegram showed 58% believed it was real, and only 13% thought it was a deep fake.
While the call is not informative by itself, if real, it could indicate the mood among some elites in Russia.
Excerpt:
Akhmedov: “They f...ked up all their sectors. All of them. He, Putin was saying ‘as long and we have the army’... It turned out there was no army either.”
(Lots of pictures of the process)
1/6
The 3 biggest Russian tank factories are idling due to electronics.
The Uralvagonzavod, Omsktransmash and Kurganmashzavod are working with semi-finished armored vehicles. This is when you produce the unit, but didn’t assemble the interior equipment, external sensors, etc.
2/6
RU vehicles always were using 60-90s technology. But 2 components break this cycle: Thermal/Night sights.
The navigation and fire control are completely manufactured in Russia.
A detail, the 2E36-I and 2E52 stabilizers for BMP-2 /BMP-3 are made in Ukr by PETROVSKIY KYIV.
3/6
FCS
The Russian holding Vysokotochnye Kompleks has around 20 companies developing high precision components as Fire controls, sensors, etc. The Novosibirsk Instrument Making Plant, RFAS and Vologda Optical are also manufacturing FCS. I don’t think they miss components there.
4/6
The navigator system and others equipments are rudimentary, but the Russians know how to use it very well. Bellow images from the BMP-3 without modern equipment. The problem: RU don’t manufacture these equipments anymore and miss components to manufacture the new ones.
4/5
The New BMP-3 variants have new components. It’s a good vehicle and with excellent price. But... Russian only started a nationalization program at 2018/19. They hadn’t time to research and manufacture domestically most of its components. It should take more than one decade.
5/5
Their real pain are the thermal sights. They are using the Namut thermal sight is a joint development of Sagem from France, SKBM-Kurgan and Peleng of Belarus. Due the sanctions, French company just frozen the project. RU created a national thermal called Sosna-U and PNM-T.
Note:
RU can substitute every component buying from international market. (Rarely anything is newer than 20y). But it takes time and even the already developed systems haven’t a full production line. Even in US and EU, some equipments are assembled manually, tested, etc.
Note: 2
It’s impossible to start massive production of a complex equipment as the PNM-T for example in few months. And another question is the quality. Military equipment must be made to survive in the hardest conditions and intensive usage. This means lot of tests and fixes.
Don’t think they aren’t producing. They are producing Bellow their capacity, but still producing. Some people has no idea about who Ukraine is fighting.
They will send T62, T55, even T34 if they have because this is how they fight. They want to stretch the allies capacity to supply weapons and, they are sure that western equipment cost 3x more. It’s a fight military capacity and a long war. Ukr is fighting well, but need more aid
—
Patricia Marins @pati_marins64
Mar 24
Replying to @Apurbo_3107
Source is there.
Russia arm industry has almost 3 million workers. It’s 6x the EU arm industry size. When you see an empty factory with semi-finished tanks, doesn’t matter what you think or what they says, it means that things aren’t running ok.
“In this 35-minute call, both men who appear to be friends discuss the current affairs in Russia and slam Putin and Russian leadership”
Couple more RuZZian Boys going to fall out of a window.