ISW’s RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 15, 2023
“The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks... daily Russian ground attacks have decreased from 90 to 100 attacks per day to 20 to 29 per day.”
“The Russian offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast is likely nearing culmination, if it has not already culminated”
“ISW has been unable to confirm the commitment of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District) to the offensive in Luhansk Oblast” (that is their Reserve force, presumably still waiting to exploit a breakthrough).
“The overall Wagner Group offensive on Bakhmut additionally appears to be nearing culmination... Russian forces would likely have to commit significant reserves to prevent this culmination. They may be able to do so, as ISW has observed elements of Russian airborne regiments in and around Bakhmut that do not seem to be heavily committed”
“International journalists reportedly obtained the Kremlin’s long-term strategy document for destabilizing Moldova and reintegrating it back into the Russian sphere of influence by 2030.”
“Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin commented on the reports about the dismissal of the Russian Commander of the Airborne (VDV) Forces Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky (first reported on January 20) - likely revealing Teplinsky’s affiliation with Wagner.” (Surovikin was also considered a pro-Wagner General, and was replaced around the same time)
“Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks northwest of Svatove and conducted limited ground attacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces continued advancing in and around Bakhmut and conducted ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to conduct offensive actions across the Kakhovka Reservoir in Kherson Oblast.
The Kremlin reportedly tasked the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to recruit 400,000 contract servicemen starting on April 1.
Ukrainian partisans killed a Russian collaborator in an IED attack in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast.”
I said RuZZia’s spring offensive had already peaked. Bakhmut MAY fall, but they have peaked.
““The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks... daily Russian ground attacks have decreased from 90 to 100 attacks per day to 20 to 29 per day.””