Ukraine: military situation update with maps - Mar 15, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
-—> Combined Arms Breach, what UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
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Extras:
-—> Evidence Of Russia Using Grom Standoff Weapons In Ukraine Emerges <——
Russia is using Grom winged air-launched standoff weapons against Ukraine based on recent images of wreckage found on the battlefield.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/evidence-of-russia-using-grom-standoff-weapons-in-ukraine-emerges
Freeper Yo-Yo’s comment:
Here’s the full collision vide from Rumble. You will see the bent propeller only in the last few frames before the video ends, so keep watching when the color bars pop up. The image returns.
https://rumble.com/v2ddhbg-video-of-russian-su-27-fighter-jet-colliding-with-mq-9-drone.html
Excerpt:
Also on the Russian side, there are reports, the origins of which are currently unclear, that the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service, or SVR, Sergey Naryshkin has claimed that Russia has undisclosed “technical capabilities” that could be used to recover the wreckage of the drone. This comes as the White House’s John Kirby confirms that the wreckage has not been recovered from the Black Sea, although the White House also says that the United States has taken measures - the nature of which remains unclear - to prevent the downed MQ-9 from falling into the wrong hands.
“It’s probably about maybe 4,000 or 5,000 feet of water, something like that. So, any recovery operation is very difficult at that depth by anyone. That’s the first point,” Milley said. “Secondly, we don’t have any ships there, but we do have a lot of allies and friends in the area. We’ll work through recovery operations. That’s U.S. property and we’ll leave it that at this point, but it probably broke up. There’s probably not a lot to recover, frankly.”
“As far as the loss of anything of sensitive intelligence, et cetera, as normal, we would take - and we did take mitigating measures, so we are quite confident that whatever was of value is no longer of value,” Milley added.
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Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
••Day 385.
Today there are a lot of updates from the Donetsk region.
Here, Russian forces concentrated their efforts on seizing ground to the north of Avdiivka.
Ukrainian forces had repelled major attacks on Vesele, and Novobakhmutivka, and stabilized the front line, but Russian forces recently received substantial reinforcements and, in a new wave of attack, managed to breach the Ukrainian defense.
Last time I told you that after Ukrainians pushed Russians from Vesele back to the highway, Russians decided to switch their focus to Novobakhmutivka in order to improve their tactical position relative to Ukrainian positions in Krasnohorivka.
I also told you that their attempt to conduct a mechanized assault and engulf Novobakhmutivka failed because Ukrainians leveraged the heights around Oleksandropil to secure their flanks.
The freshest reports indicate that Russians decided to switch to frontal assaults on Krasnohorivka once again.
After the previous engagements in this region, Russian forces maintained a foothold on the western side of the highway.
In a resumed offensive, fierce fights broke out near the lakes around Vesele.
Their plan was the same: attack Vesele in front while simultaneously moving towards the hills to hit Vesele from the back.
This time Russian forces succeeded and took control over Vesele.
By establishing control over this hill, Russians immediately made the eastern part of Krasnohorivka untenable.
The difference in elevation here is almost 40 meters, so Ukrainians completely mined the area and moved to the central part of the village, which is located on another hill.
Ukrainians have also responded to the deteriorating situation by reinforcing the Kransnohorivka group with several detachments.
At first glance, it is surprising how Russian units managed to breach Ukrainian defense here after a series of defeats and sustained high losses, especially in armor.
However, as it turned out, Russians have recently deployed a lot of fresh troops to the Avdiivka direction, including newly mobilized soldiers.
Fresh reinforcements allowed Russian assault units to utilize more manpower and not be as constrained by losses as previously.
Russian sources reported that their advancement inside Krasnohorivka was constrained due to mines.
It looks like Ukrainians understood that once Russians secured the hills, Ukrainians would no longer have an absolute tactical advantage and prepared the outskirts of the village in advance for the Russian entrance.
Ukrainian sources reported that Russians started making attempts at expanding control around Krasnohorivka, especially to the north of it.
They also reported that Russians engaged their aviation much more frequently and also started conducting mechanized assaults.
Geolocated footage provided by the Ukrainian 110th mechanized brigade shows heavy engagements of tanks, and armored vehicles.
It also shows how Russian infantry tried to maintain their positions in the tree lines despite constant drone and artillery fire.
Unfortunately, Ukrainian positions north of Avdiivka are much less fortified than those to the south of Avdiivka, which is why Russians managed to expand their bridgehead and slowly push Ukrainians out of Krasnohorivka.
The loss of Krasnohorivka is a significant development because it opens Russians access to one of Aviidka’s supply lines.
A frontal assault on Avdiivka from Krasnohorivka is not an option, so the next logical step for Russians will be an attempt to take Novokalynove and other settlements to the north of Avdiivka.
That is why Ukrainians are reportedly creating firing positions for big-caliber machine guns around Krasnohorivka.
Ukrainians have also sent additional supplies and reinforcements, expecting Russian forces to try to capitalize on their recent gains and keep up the momentum of advancement.
Overall, Russian forces are likely trying to exploit the excessive Ukrainian focus on Bakhmut and their preparation for a counteroffensive around Bakhmut.
The best way to undermine their counteroffensive efforts would be to create problems somewhere else and force them to use the accumulated manpower to solve these problems at the expense of their main goal.
Recent developments to the north of Avdiivka do not look good, although talks about the encirclement are still premature.
The main supply hub of Avdiivka remains Orlivka, which is why Russians are unlikely to force Ukrainians to leave Avdiivka without achieving significant progress in the most fortified direction of this region.
Russians have crossed their river to the north and taken another chuck on the north side. [There isn’t much of the city left to hold.]
Losses on both sides will now approach 1:1.
Probability of a counterattack from the north or the south is about 1%.
==
Zaporizhzhia Region:
UA counterattack directly towards Polohy village, missing Dorozhnianka village. There is a large Russian base near Polohy. Used several BTRs, tanks, and infantry to attack the base. Don’t know if it was successful or not. Village is 10km from the frontline.
Some Russian sources say the UA attack was totally destroyed, others say that it succeeded, and still others say that the Russians ran away.
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New partial mobilization notices are being received now. After their first year, conscripts are being forced to sign on to the RGF. Also Russia looking to mobilize 400,000 new soldiers. But the way the Russians handle their soldiers on the front, they basically eliminate their numerical advantage.
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Ramstein conference
Ukraine will get more armored vehicles and tanks, artillery shells, air defense systems, plus the 40 or so MiG-29s from Poland and Slovakia.
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Israel approved export license for anti-drone system.
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Matslevsky, Oleksandr Ihorevich who was executed by the Russians, his unit had been sent to some recently captured Russian positions, but due to some misunderstanding at command level, no backup was sent. So they were immediately captured by the Russians.
UA Command still needs to be restructured and is hurting the use of Western weapons, but with the current Defense Minister, his scandals and the corruption surrounding him, Denys say he does not think reform and the elimination of the Soviet-style military is possible.
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Chief of Military Intelligence would be the best Defense Minister, and is more trusted by the people.
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Shows video of Turkish supply vehicle near Bakhmut being towed out of the soft ground in the fields by 4 farm tractors.
2 The enemy advanced by another few meters in the southern Bakhmut. (source)
3 Russian Wagner mercenaries advanced in the south and reached Korsunskogo street. Soldiers of Ukrainian Aidar battalion pushed the enemy away from the street, but the situation remains tense. (source)
4 Ukrainian soldiers of 3rd Battalion of 92nd Mechanized Brigade recaptured trenches north-west of Khromove, and fought off a subsequent counter-attack. (source)
5 An officer of 93rd Mechanized Brigade stated that Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut are running low on ammo and basically have no shells to hit the enemy in occupied parts of the city. (source)
==
https://militaryland.net/news/ukrainian-army-is-forming-two-specialised-brigades/
Ukrainian Army is forming two specialised brigades
March 15, 2023 Jerome News
Two additional brigades are reinforcing the combat capabilities of Ukrainian Ground Forces and Air Assault troops.
Ukrainian command has decided to form two brigades, 49th Artillery Brigade and 82nd Air Assault Brigade. While the first belongs to the Ground Forces of Ukraine, as any other artillery brigade, 82nd joins the Ukrainian elite Air Assault forces.
49th Artillery Brigade is a new artillery brigade of Ukrainian Ground Forces currently at the stage of formation. The brigade is under the command of Operational Command North.
82nd Air Assault Brigade is a new elite brigade of Ukrainian Air Assault Forces, currently finishing the last stage of formation and will soon be deployed to the front.
“Polish authorities detained nine foreign nationals accused of monitoring deliveries of weapons and aid to Ukraine, saying the surveillance network had links with Russian intelligence and aimed to sabotage shipments.
Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski said agents from Poland’s Internal Security Agency seized equipment including cameras, electronic devices and GPS transmitters mounted on transports. Evidence indicated that the suspected operatives were receiving payments from Russian special services, he said. “
Ukraine beginning to probe Russia defense in Zaporizhzhia region. Similar to the initial reconnaissance in force probes conducted last year before the Kherson offensives in May. Also, new reports of Russian troops in southern still occupied Kherson region falling back to Crimea defense lines.
All this has been war-gamed with the U.S. Just like the Kherson offensives last year.