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Ukraine: military situation update with maps - Mar 13, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].

-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/

-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk

-—> Combined Arms Breach, what UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ

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Extra:
-—> WWI Style Sniper Decoy Makes Comeback In Trenches Of Ukraine <——
First seen more than a century ago, a dummy of the kind apparently designed to draw enemy sniper fire has appeared in a Ukrainian trench.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/wwi-style-sniper-decoy-makes-comeback-in-trenches-of-ukraine

Excerpt:
The decoy in question is a full-size mannequin, clad in winter clothing and wearing a Soviet-era respirator, propped up on sandbags on the inside wall of a trench used by the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade.

It’s notable that the trench mannequin south of Bakhmut is also accompanied by a soldier with a periscope, suggesting that very much the same kinds of tactics are being used here, with the dummy intended to draw sniper fire that can then be used to locate an enemy position.

More advanced options for uncovering snipers are also available to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including electro-optical surveillance devices, although these are likely not widespread, hence the continued use of periscopes.

There are also acoustic-based sniper detectors, like the DARPA-developed Boomerang, that use microphone sensors to detect the muzzle blast and the sonic shock wave of a high-speed bullet.

Overall, we don’t know how effective the mannequin decoy tactic has been in attracting enemy snipers, or other kinds of hostile fire, although it’s very much in keeping with the kinds of camouflage and concealment tactics that we have seen on multiple occasions previously in this conflict.

In particular, there has been a plethora of dummy vehicles, including surface-to-air missile launchers, HIMARS rocket launchers, and other high-value vehicles, designed specifically to draw enemy fire away from the real thing.

In some instances, these have been so convincing that the Russians have even publicized the destruction of such dummies as real battlefield ‘kills.’

==
-—> Russia’s Worst Nightmare! Poland Takes Delivery of 116 M1A1S Abrams Tanks for the 1st Warsaw Armored Brigade, 18th Iron Division [purchases 250 MA12M SEP, Arrive Late 2024, None of the Tanks have Depleted Uranium Armor, or Other Classified Gear.] <-—
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4U9IJmxoNI

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Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
••Day 383.

Today there are a lot of updates from the Luhansk region.

Here, Russians launched an intense series of assaults to push Ukrainians from the eastern bank of the river and launched extensive artillery preparation on Kupiansk, causing a mass evacuation of the city, in preparation for the storming operation.

However, it looks like all these efforts were in vain because they failed to secure their flanks, which invited Ukrainian counterattacks and rendered the storming of Kupiansk infeasible.

Last time we talked about this region, I told you that Russian forces breached the Ukrainian defense in Hrianykivka and started moving south along the river in an attempt to clear the eastern bank and secure their flanks before they moved in more forces for an attack on Kupiansk.

I also told you that the main idea of such actions is to cut supplies to the Kyslivka group and collapse the front line towards the Oskil River.

Many sources brought attention to the fact that Ukrainian officials have ordered the mandatory evacuation of vulnerable civilians from Kupyansk, which brought about speculations that Ukrainians are preparing to abandon this city.

However, the reported Ukrainian evacuation of vulnerable citizens does not suggest that Ukrainian forces believe that Russians threaten the city.

In fact, Russian sources have been continuously reporting about extensive Ukrainian presence in the region and stable supplies of ammunition.

Ukrainians started evacuation because Russians launched heavy artillery preparation and destroyed and damaged many civilian areas.

However, Russian forces were unable to capitalize on this artillery preparation as they visibly got stuck in the forest. Russians tried to move towards the outer edges of the forest but could not secure any gains due to mines and artillery strikes. As Ukrainians know where they planted mines, they continue assaulting Russian positions in the forest.

Recent reports suggest that once Russians entered Lyman Pershyi, which was previously in the grey zone, Ukrainians started increasingly targeting this settlement.

Even the fights in Hrianykivka continue to this day because Ukrainians launch assaults from Dvorichna through the forest.

Securing this flank is a necessity for Russians, otherwise, they cannot deploy additional troops to conduct an offensive towards Kupiansk, cutting supplies to the Kyslivka group and collapsing the front line.

The Institute for the Study of War commented on this situation and stated that in order to threaten the city, Russians need to advance 13km cross-country rapidly, and the failure to secure their gains in the forest showed that they do not have the capacity to do it.

Ukrainian General Staff concluded that the only objective that Russians are achieving here is fixing Ukrainian forces in the Kupyansk direction and preventing Ukrainian forces from transferring personnel to other areas in Ukraine.

As you remember, Putin ordered to defeat Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and capture Luhansk and Donetsk regions by March.

Judging by what has happened, Russian forces tried to breach Ukrainian defense in Vuhledar to disperse Ukrainian troops, take Bakhmut, and then commit their resources to take Kupiansk and Lyman.

The almost unnoticeable changes to the front line make many doubt that the offensive operation happened at all.

However, the engagement of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions on this front line indicates the Russian winter offensive happened, Ukrainian forces just prevented Russians from securing significant gains.

Donetsk People’s Republic commander Khodakovsky questioned whether Russian forces are prepared for the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive operations after “getting carried away by Bakhmut [and] Vuhledar” and suggested that Russian forces may have set conditions for Ukrainian counteroffensives by heavily expending combat power and resources on these operations.

The conventional Russian military recently massed and lost significant numbers of mobilized personnel for a since-culminated offensive push near Vuhledar.

The marine brigades were even merged together due to losses. Russian major offensives in the Luhansk region failed to generate any significant results. And Russians are still fighting in Bakhmut.

The Institute for the Study of War estimates that the culmination of Russia’s current three offensive efforts will likely allow Ukrainian forces to launch counteroffensives anywhere along the frontline.

It looks like Putin has overestimated the Russian military’s own capabilities and the extent to which mobilized soldiers will play a role.

Given the current state of the Russian army, the most realistic plan would have required anywhere from 6 to 12 months of several phases of successful Russian campaigning.

As of now, the intensity of fights remains high only around Kreminna and Bakhmut, which implies that the Russian offensive has prematurely culminated.

And Russian forces’ culmination could generate favorable conditions for Ukrainian forces to exploit in their own late spring or summer counteroffensive after incorporating Western deliveries of weapons and newly built and trained assault formations.

==
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPpYQuLW8T0
Denys says:
••Bakhmut holds

==
PMC has lost half of its convicts.

==
Tanks:
UA in Spain have completed Leopard 2A4 training. Version is early mod without side armor. Better than T-72s.

Russia has lost 2/3rds of its T-72 tanks so far. Remaining third are not in good condition as these were taken from long term storage.

T-62 modernization includes reactive armor and more modern sights in a round-the-clock factory in Chita, Siberia. That’s all. Around 7 tanks per month are modernized. [Does that even keep up with attrition?]

Polish version of the T-72M1, the PT-91 Twardy, has arrived in Ukraine. Has new armor plate, reactive armor, new sights, thermal sights, new engine, electronic control systems, and laser defense.

Shows image of BTR 50P complete with roll of toilet paper - taken in Russian repair shop. 70 year old death traps. No armor, no speed, no maneuverability, one machine gun

==
China may push Putin to withdraw from Ukraine because its is the only way to keep Putin in power and to continue to exploit Russia’s cheap resources for the Chinese economy.

==
Finland will negotiate the transfer of F-18 Hornets to Ukraine. F-18s have stronger landing gear than F-16s and are better suited for Ukraine’s rough air strips.

==
Russian authorities have begun the evacuation of Pro-Russian civilians from Zaporizhzhia region.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/03/ukraine-media-start-to-acknowledge-reality.html#more

Ukraine - Media Start To Acknowledge Reality

Finally some truth about the real state of the Ukrainian military is sneaking into main stream media. It is as bad, still not fully disclosed, as we have described it again and again.

As the Washington Post provides:

Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow

I'll leave out the propaganda bits and go for the factual beef. The quotes are long but needed to grasp the depth of horrible situation.

The opening paragraph:

The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.

That spring offensive is as likely to happen as the announced relief campaign to unblock Bakhmut. The later is bugged down in mud which will only become worse over the next few weeks.>{? The spring campaign will be made up of green recruits which will use a wild mix of weapons they are not familiar with. Unless there are some 'western' surprises I see no way how it can overwhelm the well prepared Russian defense lines.

Back to the piece:

[Á]n influx of inexperienced draftees, brought in to plug the losses, has changed the profile of the Ukrainian force, which is also suffering from basic shortages of ammunition, including artillery shells and mortar bombs, according to military personnel in the field.

“The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth.”

“And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,” Kupol added. “Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.”

Such grim assessments have spread a palpable, if mostly unspoken, pessimism from the front lines to the corridors of power in Kyiv, the capital.

Ukrainian losses, estimated to be nearer to 200,000 than to 100,000 dead with even more wounded, are especially felt at the lower command level. One can not just take a salesman or teacher from the street and put them into a junior command role.

Kupol said he was speaking out in hopes of securing better training for Ukrainian forces from Washington and that he hopes Ukrainian troops being held back for a coming counteroffensive will have more success than the inexperienced soldiers now manning the front under his command.

“There’s always belief in a miracle,” he said. “Either it will be a massacre and corpses or it’s going to be a professional counteroffensive. There are two options. There will be a counteroffensive either way.”

It indeed will need a miracle for the counteroffensive to become anything but a massacre.

One senior Ukrainian government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid, called the number of tanks promised by the West a “symbolic” amount. Others privately voiced pessimism that promised supplies would even reach the battlefield in time.

“If you have more resources, you more actively attack,” the senior official said. “If you have fewer resources, you defend more. We’re going to defend. That’s why if you ask me personally, I don’t believe in a big counteroffensive for us. I’d like to believe in it, but I’m looking at the resources and asking, ‘With what?’ Maybe we’ll have some localized breakthroughs.”

“We don’t have the people or weapons,” the senior official added. “And you know the ratio: When you’re on the offensive, you lose twice or three times as many people. We can’t afford to lose that many people.”