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Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Jan 20, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].

-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/

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Extras:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Russian Casualties “Significantly Well Over 100k” Says Top U.S. General <——
General Milley said the losses on both sides are horrendous and that it will only end via negotiation once Russia has left Ukraine.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-casualties-significantly-well-over-100k-says-top-u-s-general

—
-—> Dutch Open To Transferring F-16 Jets To Ukraine (Updated) <——
Ukrainian pleas for modern Western fighter jets have so far come to nothing, but the Dutch now say they’re open to giving them F-16s.

Excerpts:
“In the case of the F-16, you have a lot of options for different training programs, different electronic countermeasures, different engines, different everything - it’s like Lego!” the Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot known only by his callsign “Juice,” told The War Zone last December. “In general, I don’t say that the F-16 is better as an aircraft itself, but it may be the most realistic choice for Ukraine, considering capability, availability, affordability, and most importantly sustainability.”

Just as important as the jets themselves is the training for the Ukrainian pilots and maintainers who would operate them.
Col. Ignat has said it would likely take around six months for pilots to convert to new fighters, with the bulk of this being related to tactics and the use of new weapons. However, other estimations put the training time as much longer, based on the fact that transitioning a foreign air arm to the F-16 typically takes many months, if not years, to accomplish — even without a war raging at home.

—
-—> No Western Tanks For Ukraine Announced After Allies Meet In Germany <——
While tanks were not on the list of donations, top U.S. general says Ukraine has the armor it needs to go on the offensive.

Excerpts:
But despite the lack of tanks announced today, Army Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters there is plenty of firepower for Ukraine to go on the offensive against Russia.

“This package, combined with our previous ones, includes combined arms maneuver capabilities with supporting artillery, equivalent to at least two combined arms maneuver brigades or six mech infantry battalions, 10 motorized infantry battalions and four artillery battalions along with a lot of other equipment,” he said. “This U.S. package, along with the Allied donations that are indicated today, signifies our collective resolve and our commitment to Ukraine to protect their population from the indiscriminate Russian attacks and to provide the armor necessary to on the offensive.”

The front lines in Ukraine are huge, Milley said, likening them to the distance “from Washington, D.C., to Atlanta.”

“So that is a significant amount of territory, and in that territory, are still remaining a lot of Russian forces in Russian occupied Ukraine,” he said. “So from a military standpoint, I still maintain that this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it’d be very, very difficult.”

Given the amount of equipment the U.S. and allies have committed, along with training, Milley said “it’s very, very possible to for the Ukrainians to run a significant tactical or even operational level offensive operation to liberate as much Ukrainian territory as possible.”

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••Day 331.

Today there is a lot of news from the Luhansk region.

Over the last several days, the Ukrainians have conducted an extensive attack here, which resulted in a lot of changes to the front line.

The changes to the status quo happened in the central part of the Luhansk region.

Last time we covered this area, I told you that the Russians launched an unstoppable series of assaults on Novoselivke because, without it, they would not be able to maintain their positions in Kuzemivka.

The main idea behind these attacks was that offense is the best defense.

In we look at the topographic map, we can see that Kuzemivka is located in the lowlands, surrounded by Ukrainian positions a few hundred meters away from it.

This means that there is simply no way to hold defense inside the village, so the Russians were constantly pushing and successfully preventing the Ukrainians from getting too close and endangering this group.

The biggest problem with this tactic is that it is extremely costly, as attackers usually lose more men than the defenders, and in this case, where the Russians were attacking from a tactically disadvantageous position, the losses were even higher.

The Ukrainians tried to burn Russian reserves with artillery strikes, but the situation only noticeably changed when the Russians started reinforcing Kreminna.

This put a huge strain on Russian reserves in this particular region, and the Ukrainians took the initiative.

Due to the constant attacks, the Ukrainians opted for an unusual solution.

They abandoned Novoselivke but conducted combat reconnaissance very frequently.

This way, they did not need to stay under artillery fire in this very small village, and they also did not allow the Russians to establish full control over it.

But as the weakness of the Russian group became more evident, the Ukrainians prepared an attack fist to push the Russians from this region completely.

One group consisting of up to 20 troops attacked the village from Berestove, similarly to how it was done previously.

During the engagement, the Ukrainians exploited the fact that their attention was fixed on the first attack group and opened the second line of attack.

The Ukrainians formed an attack fist in Stelmakhivka that consisted of around 100 people and several tanks and assaulted the southwestern outskirts.

As a result, the Russians were rapidly pushed behind the railways and soon started retreating. The Ukrainians reinforced this group even more with around 150 troops and half a dozen armored vehicles and developed their offensive in the direction of Kuzemivka.

As a result, the Russians left the Kuzemivka area completely.

Nonetheless, the Russians continued to concentrate their artillery fire on these two settlements. Their goal was to inflict losses on this big attack group and also not allow it to clear the settlement.

The latest news suggests that the Ukrainians did not clear Kuzemivka, so it is considered a grey zone, but they do maintain full control over Novoselivske, which is even more important than Kuzemivka.

After losing control over Kuzemivka, the Russians basically have only three settlements standing in the way of the Ukrainians and preventing them from storming Svatove.

What is interesting, over the last month, there were a lot of engagements around these settlements.

For example, as noted in my previous report on this region, the Ukrainian General Staff, for the first time, started mentioning Kryvoshyivka and Pikuychansk, which indicates that the Ukrainians have been gradually improving their tactical position around these settlements.

Also, a lot of heavy clashes happened between Stelmakhivka and Kolomyichikha because these are the main bases in the region.

Even though the Ukrainians are still far away from attacking Svatove in a serious way, getting as close to it as possible can force the Russians to deploy their reserves in this city instead of Bakhmut and Kreminna, which can alleviate a lot of issues that the Ukrainians are experiencing right now.

The Svatove area is mainly the area of responsibility of mobilized soldiers, which the Russian command does not trust a lot, and may be forced to relocate their professional troops from the south.

And no wonder, as these units lack military discipline, which translates to very poor coordination on the battlefield.

This poor coordination often results in defensive positions being abandoned prematurely, which to a degree, happened in Novoselivske because the Russians failed to request artillery support timely and quickly withdrew.

The Russian Ministry of Defense is trying to improve professionalism within the Russian forces by ordering commanders to impose discipline at least on the smallest level, such as stricter guidelines for the grooming standards, but this did not work out very well, and they received a huge backlash.

They received an even bigger backlash for restricting the use of personal electronic devices in the combat zone.

Russian Ministry of Defense continues to blame poor operational security practices for the Ukrainian strikes that kill hundreds of troops every day.

The inability to acknowledge the poor organizational skills of the higher level command and the impositions of these pseudo-measures threatens to undermine Russian performance even more.

The prohibition of personal electronics will impede soldiers’ ability to control quadcopters and store terrain maps, which in current realities is indispensable.

This only means that the Ukrainians will have a greater advantage and sharper skills when it comes to weaponizing personal devices and using them to get an edge on the enemy.