Posted on 12/21/2022 10:13:56 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
One of the big problems with Federal goverment and Federal Reserve monetary stimulus is … it wears out. Just look at M2 Money growth.
US existing homes sales fell -7.70% in November to 4.09 million units SAAR. And since the same month last year, existing home sales are down -35.4% YoY.
The good news? The median price of existing homes fell to 3.21% YoY. The bad news? The ark is really bad pointing to a bad December. Inventory for sale (orange line) remains below pre-Covid shutdown levels.
Of course, will the Federal government and Federal Reserve come riding to the rescue of the housing market … again? It looks like The Fed is thinking about it.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
What I wanna know is what the hell is YoYo growth? Is that something Uncle Joe uses to attract little girls?
The politicians in Washington, D.C. are getting a kick from every illegal that comes across the Border. And they are also getting a cut of every grain of narcotics that comes across the Border.
Destroy everything in their path. The plan is working.
The Federal Government and the Fed needs to let the housing market crash. But the Democrats are in charge so that won’t happen. They’ll prop things up and we will continue to see inflation.
YOYO means that when the Dims screw everything up, You're On Your Own.
Good. A few more years of this and homes might actually be affordable for the average American again.
Yep, housing market crashes are part of the normal cycle and are unavoidable. But this will be much worse than normal because the government has been interfering to prevent the normal cycle for so long that we probably have 3 crashes worth of price adjustments waiting to happen.
Glad I shifted my portfolio from YoYos to Hula Hoops.
The building boom hasn’t slowed in Charlotte, NC. They are building homes and selling them faster than I have ever seen.
Year Over Year growth or decrease in this case.
The only silver lining in the current US housing markets are twofold.
First the sales of new homes are actually up from the number they bottomed out at in July. They got down to about 550M in July. They were about 630 in October. They topped out around 850m in December of 2021. The high since 2007. This was because home builders dropped their prices from the beginning of the year to make up for the increase in interest rates.
Secondly, manufactured home sales are up about 14%. Single section mobile homes are up 22%. Multi section (double wide and modular) home construction is up 9% over last year.
IMHO, as a lumber broker this is the future of home construction in the US. Homes will be built in a factory and delivered to the site as a component. Either as wall panels and trusses or module parts that are assembled on site with a crane.
The days of stick building on site will continue to become a smaller segment of the industry. It is too labor intensive.
Do you know anything about this kind of wood siding? Pretty sure the guy who built my house bought it at Home Depot. But I guess you need to have it “transferred” to your local store.
https://www.homedepot.com/p/questions/2-in-x-8-in-x-12-ft-Select-SPF-Log-Cabin-Siding-740462244283/309019619/1
Interest rates double, prices have to decline… way it works
Yup.
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency first by inflation then by deflation the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered... I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs.” ~ Thomas Jefferson
Agreed. It's way overdue. Our birth rate is low so the housing prices should be much cheaper unless you live in Florida, Texas and Arizona. But most of the U.S. is not like that. So it should be crashing hard like you said.
That appears to be a standard pattern of Log Cabin Siding.
Which means somebody took a 2&btr wane free 2x8-12’ SPF and ran it through a molder to produce that pattern.
It is probably not a stocking item that any retailer would have on the shelf/rack. Home Depot probably does not even stock this type of item unless you are in an area that log cabins are very popular.
HD probably brought in the amount needed for your house job.
They probably ordered it from a local warehouse distributor that bought it in truckload quantities.
Do you need to replace some of it?
Where are you located?
Same here in North Texas. New housing developments are springing up like weeds.
Well, it’s not just that the prices should be declining due to lack of demand; it’s that prices have been inflated at approximately 4 times the rate that wages have been inflated over the last 50 years. That isn’t sustainable at all and is a situation that can only result in a dramatic price correction.
I have the solution. Give Ukraine another 45 billion dollars.
Housing Starts in October 2022 in the Charlotte area were down 39% from October of 2021.
Single family starts were down 15%.
Multifamily were down 62%.
Year to date overall housing starts in Charlotte were down 6%
In general the first 3-4 months of 2022 were great. The SH#T hit the fan for some areas in July. Others did not slow down until November.
There are some metro areas that are still up in comparison to last year: Dallas, Houston are still the two biggest starts in the country. Followed by Atlanta. Tampa, Indy, DC, Richmond and Columbus are the only other markets that are up in relation to last year.
Some big markets like Phoenix and Austin are still building a lot of houses. They just are not building as many as they did in 2021. Same with LA.
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