This isn't a good argument because people are different all over the country. Kemp winning in his backyard is not the same as, say, Kemp directly running against Trump and competing with him in Florida, in Texas, etc.
Ted Cruz was within striking distance--losing hundreds of thousands of votes compared to Abbot---after his tussle with Trump. It was what made the idiot Dems believe Beto could actually pull off a miracle this year.
Millions of Trump supporters believe the election was stolen and will view DeSantis running against Trump as pure treason. They will not show up. Even a small percentage of their number not showing up will kill DeSantis, even against Biden, the weakest candidate we've seen in a long time.
If that’s true, we’re basically going to piss 2024 away no matter what. The dye is already cast.