If there is an actual tsunami-red wave, the Republicans will end up with at least 60 senators and the House majority will be historical. I really can’t see how it will turn out differently. It will be the usual break down of thirds with the independents going strongly for Republicans.
GOP is not going to gain 10 Senate Seats, even in an unprecedented wipe out of Dems you aren’t going to see a 10 seat gain this election.
Democrats are only defending 13 total seats this election I believe.. for the GOP to gain 10 seats would require the GOP to win 30 of the 35 Senate races... and that’s just not going to happen in ANY election. GOP is not going to win 85% of the Senate elections, so need to check that silliness right now.
Going to be likely 53-55 range.. and maybe a few real shockers will push it higher, but its not going to be GOP holds everywhere and gets 10 out of 13 current democrat seats, that’s just not realistic.
House is where the HUGE swing is possible... I know safe consensus says 40ish seats on the top end, I personally feel double that is the range.. 80ish... should the wins blow “just right” they could flirt with triple digits.
We will see. But 60 in the Senate this time? Not really seeing where.
NH, NV, AZ, GA sure, very much in play, and good likelyhood of flipping... Where are your other 6 going to come from? Anyone really think NY is going to boot Schumer? Or California is going to go GOP for their Senator? Even if you are optimistic and say WA is possible... where are the other 5 going to come from? CT? VT? Mass? MD?
Not with this years map.
Now in 2024, the Dems will be defending a LOT more territory in the Senate, but it will also be a presidential year, so will be a different dynamic... but If the GOP does gain 4-5 seats or more with only 13 Dems up for re-election that’s a HUGE repudiation of the Democrats this cycle... that means that Democrat Senate Incumbents will have lost 30-38% of the time, and that’s HUGE.
2024, Dems have to defend a MUCH bigger map to defend.
Republicans will only have 10 Senate seats they are defending. where Dems will have 23 with 1 Independent.
Super majority certainly will be possible in 2024, but that’s 2+ years away, the political dynamic will likely have moved by then.. but we will see.. but if there were a time I were going to say GOP has chance at 60+ seats in the Senate the 2024 election is the likely place it will happen, not 2022.