Posted on 05/10/2022 7:57:05 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Sooner or later you will have to call his bluff.
Since this began any time Putin withdrew from an area it was reported by Ukraine they drove them back. I tend to think Putin state he had certain missions he was going to accomplish and layed them out pretty specifically. But the press consistantly pushes He wants Ukraine, or he’s going for the entire eastern area, or he’s going for Moldova etc. etc.
If you check what Putin said over what the press has stated it looks like he’s simply pulling back from areas he’s accomplished his purpose in.
It’s really important to understand that none of the bloggers who get quoted know anything. They all resort to telepathy and type out words imagining they know who was or is thinking what.
None of them know anything.
1) This is the first war in history where both sides had access to excellent satellite recon imagery. No one can do anything without being seen.
2) If you’re seen, long range weapons can hit you. This erases the concept of occupying this or that being meaningful.
3) Ukraine has 1500 locomotives. Only 300 are diesel. This is why electric substations are hit in the west.
4) 35% of US exports are arms. 22% of Russian exports are arms. Ukraine is an enormous arms expo and frankly, because Russian weapons are used by both sides, and much talked about by both sides, the marketing campaign favors Russia. It is surprising stuff getting advertised, like Turkish drones. We hear about US weapons shipped. The rest of the customers around hear about weapons used.
5) In 40 yrs no one will know or care about who started the war. Only the winner will be known. That’s all the history books will have room to mention.
It may just be that reality is catching up with the Russian army. I’m reminded of medieval air knights on horseback. Very powerful at first, but if you goad them into a long attack in the hot sun, they and their horses become exhausted and dehydrated and they can be slaughtered.
And now they have to face all this NATO weaponry.
IF Russian morale collapses and the Ukrainians have plenty of morale ....
It appears a lot of the Russian recruits see the reality and don’t see the reason for why they’re doing this to Ukraine
In marked contrast to the propoganda view believed by many of Putin’s fans on here.
The attack around north eastern Kharkiv will move east, to relieve Ukrainian forces have been holding out in the northern Donbas. That's where Ukraine has been under "immanent encirclement and collapse" for a few weeks. "Imminent" because that is where Ukraine spent several years building up defenses and Russia has been unable to make any advances.
Which means in a few weeks, the experts who say they have been saying all along that Ukraine cannot win will have to change what they have been saying they have been saying all along, again.
Inbox --> The Pentagon just distributed this rundown of U.S. military assistance provided to Ukraine: pic.twitter.com/qvKRA9ql2p— Andrew deGrandpré (@adegrandpre) May 11, 2022
Agree. A big invading army that has not maintained the tires on $20 million combat vehicles is not going to beat a smaller defending army that has properly maintained its $20 million combat vehicles. There are way too many who should understand this who are ignoring the implications of what this means.
However it is a made mistake for Western leaders to not pursue a diplomatic settlement but to totally humiliate Russia.
Disagree. Direct threats to national interests supersede politics and diplomacy. Ukraine's national interest is to survive by expelling the Russian army. If that humiliates Putin that is his problem.
Feel free to disagree with me on this next point. So far Putin has not made any truly credible nuclear threat. The speculation about him using nuclear weapons is for the press so they have something to be hyperventilate over. Putin wants to survive, and nuclear weapons means he won't. The hints that Russia might rattle sabers means they are trying to intimidate and they are not serious about it.
Battlefield neutron devices with adjustable kill radius.
Also, no fallout across NATO countries would make it harder to claim they were also targeted.
1. "Demilitarization" of the Ukraine;
2. "Denazification" of the Ukraine;
3. "Neutralization" (no NATO membership) of the Ukraine.
4. Ending the "genocide on the Russian people" in the Ukraine.
Everything Putin said boiled down to those four goals. (It's useful to the discussion to explicitly remind us of those things.)
Translation:
1. Military victory over Ukraine.
2. Decapitation of the current Ukrainian leadership and installation of a puppet state.
3. This one goal is a relatively straight-forward one. Putin wants to force Ukraine to forever renounce NATO membership and he wants to force NATO to accept this and back off!
4. Securing the "sovereignty" of the two Donbass "People's Republics," i.e., effectively denying those territories to the Ukraine for all future time.
Translation of translation:
1. Ukraine loses the war. At least: Russian battlefield performance is optically better than Ukrainian battlefield performance. At least at least: Ukrainian losses are greater than Russian losses.
2. Zelinskyy either assassinated or forced to abdicate (and flee the country or be captured and tried as a war criminal). New Russian-backed puppet leader installed.
3. Puppet Ukrainian rump state vows eternal neutrality.
4. Ukrainian military operations to retake Luhansk an Donetsk territories cease, Ukrainians withdraw, LPR and DPR take their "rightful place" as sovereign nations and are recognized by Ukraine.
Now, let's compare those goals with what the Russians have actually accomplished or have any hope of accomplishing:
1. Russia doesn't have a snowflake's chance in hell of achieving any sort of "equitable" military victory over Ukraine. The best he's looking at right now is some sort of a draw. Russian losses (personnel and materiel) have been devastating. It will take years for it to recover, at least partially - but it will NEVER again be able to field as many soldiers. The world's estimation of Russia as a preeminent military force has plummeted.
2. Zelinskyy is alive and functioning. Zelinskyy has become a hero to the world, is being "courted" by all the major powers. His govt. is intact. His standing as a world leader has been established. His reputation as a stateman has been burnished. There is no foreseeable scenario where that would change.
3. Ukraine has been promised fast-track membership in NATO, and the E.U. has likewise promised to expedite the membership process. SWEDEN and FINLAND are now breaking from their longstanding position of neutrality and hurrying to join NATO. Russia's NATO border thus at least DOUBLES in length!
4. Putin still has some semblance of retaining the Donbass, at this point - though that could change once Ukraine is re-armed with NATO weapons and should it decide to "forge on." There's even a possibility that, if Russia is delivered a humiliating military defeat elsewhere, it might even have to surrender the Crimea at the negotiating table (I DON'T think that Ukraine can reconquer it / has the will to reconquer it.)
At this stage, let's also point out that Putin is also pursuing militarily certain UNSTATED goals, e.g.: The absorption of a contiguous land bridge stretching to Transnistria. This one is a no-go from the start.
Regards,
Does Russia even have those?
Yes. Easy peasy!
Regards,
All that still boils down to the fact there is no win for either side......and further Ukraine will not be allowd in Nato regardless of what’s said now or in th future. That is just not going to happen.
How much of Ukraine Russia ends up with has yet to be determined. I suspect Crimea and the land bridge might.
US will be highly involved in whatever Governing body remains in Ukraine - with or without Zelensky.
It is incredible how badly maintained, trained and motivated Russias war machine was
He is NOT studying latest tactics. He is trying to figure out how to start all those new locked John Deere tractors his troops have looted from Ukraine.
“...both sides had access to excellent satellite recon imagery. No one can do anything without being seen.”
I just saw a video of Ukraine digging fox holes in a woodland. The trees had full foliage, and the ground would be invisible from the air. I don’t know how extensive these woodlands are, but springtime does bring this invisibility benefit for those who know how to use it.
“He just might deploy tactical nuclear weapons and risk the end of the world.”
He can’t do that all by his lonesome. At the end, Hitler was going bat poop crazy and some generals were just refusing his orders. He wanted Paris burned down to the ground after they were getting pushed out after DDay and a German general refused the order.
Lol, sure that Russian column 3 1/2 miles long trying to encircle Kyiv was just our imagination.
Nope.
Putin was trying to annex Donbas and the other breakaway region initially, but he overextended himself by trying to collapse the Ukriane government.
Oil and Gas cut this morning to Europe. Europe 3-6 months/18 months away from replacing the energy from Russia with another souce(s).
Putin has signaled that weapons of mass destruction are on the table. It is entirely possible that by withdrawal of his forces from direct contact with Ukraine/Western military assets that tactial nukes or other large Kill-A-Ton weapons are going to be deployed.
From what I’ve read all sources, is that Russia has lost 25K killed and wounded, and that the Ukraine has 50K killed and wounded.
Donbas will be in Russian hands free from 8 years of Ukrainian artillery attacks when this ends.
Biden has yet again advanced the Green Agenda with less natural resources reaching markets while providing no replacement capacity’s.
The Orcs do have a chance of winning, but not through direct military confrontation, but by destroying Ukraine infrastructure and economy.
They are well on their way with the destruction of critical bridges and many locomotives (which cannot be replaced).
Because of Ukraine’s geography rail is the only efficient way to move large quantities of heavy cargoes - like ammo and weapons. Also the land is bisected by the Dniepr River and hosts of smaller meander rivers everywhere necessitating some 20-30 major bridges just to cross the 700-900 miles from the Polish border to the Orc border.
Then there is the self-inflicted fuel crisis, with wholesalers closing shop because they are forced by the government to sell at a loss, drying up civilian gas and diesel - with the attendant loss of jobs and income. In a few months, not only will the government be broke, but so will most civilians.
Because of all of these factors, the weapons and ammo being shipped in, are in jeopardy of ever reaching the front, certainly continued resupply is in doubt. Fuel shortages will hasten this disaster.
Grain harvest will be at best 40% of normal with most going to feed the Ukraine population. It is no longer economical for farmers to plant wheat and are planting buckwheat and oats instead.
The southern bridge at Bilhorod-Dnistrovis’kyi to Romania is apparently still functioning despite being hit many times. Meaning fuel can get in from Romania and some agriculture products can still be exported. Loss would completely cut off those items to most of Ukraine.
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