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Russian Casualties in Ukraine: Reaching the Tipping Point
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) ^ | March 31, 2022 | Mark F. Cancian Senior Adviser, International Security Program

Posted on 04/07/2022 5:48:06 AM PDT by Red Badger

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1 posted on 04/07/2022 5:48:06 AM PDT by Red Badger
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To: Red Badger

Russia is a vast country, it is very difficult to organize an effective reserve system.

Complicating this is the decentralized nature and the corruption of the military. They don’t want to spend money on remote reserve training centers and supplies. They don’t even supply conscripts well.


2 posted on 04/07/2022 6:02:22 AM PDT by dila813
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To: Red Badger

US intelligence has admitted they make chit up on a daily basis...why is this any different?


3 posted on 04/07/2022 6:06:23 AM PDT by mac_truck (aide toi et dieu t'aidera )
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To: dila813

There must be a way to ID the dead and let their mothers in Russia know.


4 posted on 04/07/2022 6:08:20 AM PDT by DIRTYSECRET
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To: mac_truck

I heard that the Russians had run out of bombs and food after a third day. Yet, they have enough to feed civilians and the bombing increases.


5 posted on 04/07/2022 6:11:20 AM PDT by NorseViking
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To: DIRTYSECRET

In fact DNR complains that they have thousands of the Ukrainian casualties the other side refuses to puck up.


6 posted on 04/07/2022 6:12:44 AM PDT by NorseViking
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To: dila813

Yep. Their conscript system shows why a kleptocracy is bad at war. It exists to collect bribes. Every recruiter accepts a fee to code someone as ineligible. Those fees gets passed up the ranks and pay for the grand dachas of each general.

For the military you are left with the dregs that are either too poor or too dumb to figure out the system.


7 posted on 04/07/2022 6:14:49 AM PDT by Renfrew
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To: Red Badger

War casualties have caused the fall of empires in this part of the world. WWI caused the end of Habsburg and Romanov dynasties. First usually comes the civil disobedience, in WWI the protesters burnt the records for conscription. There was already some disobedience in Belarus with workers sabotaging the trains. Expect more to follow as more body bags come home.


8 posted on 04/07/2022 6:16:29 AM PDT by Dr. Franklin ("A republic, if you can keep it." )
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To: Red Badger

Morale

Morale of your troops is as important as having adequate supplies and good leadership. For the Russian Army to suffer this type of casualty and the loss of so much equipment can not help but affect troop morale, and not in a good way.

The primary goal of warfare is not to kill (or wound) the enemy but to break their will to fight. Once they no longer want to fight they lose.

The smart thing for the Russians to do is pull their troops back to a secure and defensive area and begin to rebuild their forces.

Allow them time to rest and re-group, get replacements, and supplies.

The smart thing for the Ukraines is not to give them time to rest and regroup.


9 posted on 04/07/2022 6:30:02 AM PDT by CIB-173RDABN (I am not an expert in anything, and my opinion is just that, an opinion. I may be wrong.)
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To: CIB-173RDABN

Sun Tszu could not have said it better..................


10 posted on 04/07/2022 6:31:29 AM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegal aliens are put up in hotels.....................)
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To: Renfrew

Sounds like the Royal Navy conscript system and the Army that fought Napoleon under Wellington.


11 posted on 04/07/2022 6:32:12 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: CIB-173RDABN
The smart thing for the Ukraines is not to give them time to rest and regroup.

By using the same outdated armor vulnerable to shoulder fired and drone fired anti-tank weapons. Everyone needs to learn the lessons of this war, the US Army included.

12 posted on 04/07/2022 6:33:44 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: Dr. Franklin

There will be more to follow. History teaches that famine often follows war especially during times of political and economic instability. The lunatic greens currently have power in the EU and the US. Thanks to their aggressive assault on fossil fuels, natural gas, the core ingredient of fertilizer, is expensive and scarce. Diesel fuel, which is essential to farmers, is also very expensive. Farm yields will decrease around the world. If China and India due to weather or other factors, have a poor harvest, then overt famine will occur. As it is there will be severe food shortages in Africa and parts of Asia.

The lunatic greens in the EU and US will not starve but they will be responsible for the misery, starvation and hunger wars that will come. They ought to be held responsible.


13 posted on 04/07/2022 6:35:39 AM PDT by allendale
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To: Red Badger

“the loss of trained troops will impair military operations and eventually have a political effect.”

They didn’t let se any trained troops, they lost a bunch of 18 year old kids from rural Russia. They still have their killer hoard from Chechnya and Syria.


14 posted on 04/07/2022 6:48:27 AM PDT by McGavin999 (To shut down the border tell the administration the cartel is smuggling Ivermectin )
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To: dila813

Compounding this is that the army in Russia has a very thin cadre of experienced, professional NCOs. Without that group of soldiers to provide consistency, discipline, and training...you have a mob, not an army.

This fact isn’t really disputed. Nor is it propaganda.

The Russian Military structure has been its biggest weakness, and this was true even in the Cold War era.


15 posted on 04/07/2022 6:52:34 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: mac_truck

Its estimates, based on experience.

And certainly the US has experience in war over the past couple of decades.

Why would you think that applying the same metrics to a Russian war would be different?

If anything, these guys are basing their metrics on a US war. Do you think the Russian Army has demonstrated a more effective handling of the wounded, or provides better fighting conditions for their troops?

Some folks think in a war situation that the media should be handing out specific, detailed, and 100% accurate information. And they point that out as the reason to dismiss a report in its entirety. That opinion is kind of weak.


16 posted on 04/07/2022 6:56:33 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: Red Badger

I’ll post this interesting take on Russia here:

https://ricochet.com/1214468/finnish-intelligence-officer-explains-the-russian-mindset/


17 posted on 04/07/2022 6:56:45 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: mac_truck
US intelligence expected Ukraine to fold in a few days, which is why they offered Zelensky a ride to irrelevancy in Poland.

So their original assessment of the Russian army's capabilities was completely incorrect. And they were right about Russia preparing for an invasion only because they consulted Captain Obvious.

18 posted on 04/07/2022 6:59:20 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: mac_truck

The proof is in the pudding. The Kyiv junta stands. Putinist attempts to “denazify” Ukraine have failed.


19 posted on 04/07/2022 7:02:39 AM PDT by lodi90
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To: pierrem15

Ironically, Putin could have rolled the Russian army all the way to Kyiv in 2014-15 because his stooge, Yanukovych, had made the Ukrainian army a corrupt shell. He chose not to and now is only able to mass murder civilians and destroy Ukraine with bombs.


20 posted on 04/07/2022 7:07:10 AM PDT by lodi90
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