West Suspicious That Latest Russian Compromise Offers Are "Tactical Exercise To Play For Time"

Update (1210ET): Following Blinken's earlier urging to focus on Russia's "actions" on the ground and "not just what it says" coming out of the Istanbul talks, some top officials are charging that Russia's potential "compromises" being offered are but a ploy to buy more time on the battlefield.

Via Newswires: "Western official says nothing we have seen so far has demonstrated that Russia is particularly serious about peace talks and seems to be more of a tactical exercise to play for time."

Concerning a draft ceasefire deal in the works, each side has confirmed they will return to their respective capitals to discuss the proposals on the table. In terms of specifics, the following is from Kiev-based "Ukrainian Independent Information Agency of News" or UNIAN's transcript of the interview in English...

1.Ukraine needs guarantees that are more solid than NATO's Article 5 2.Guarantees must be in the form of a treaty signed by all guarantors 3.In the event of an aggression against Ukraine, consultations must be held within 3 days, after which guarantor states provide assistance in the form of armed forces, weapons, airspace closure. 4.Among guarantors Ukraine envisions: Britain, China, Russia, US, France, Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland. 5.Temporarily guarantees will not apply to Crimea and occupied Donbass 6.Guarantor will not oppose and will in fact help Ukraine's accession to the EU

Russia’s deputy defense minister says Moscow has decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.” pic.twitter.com/2qDYOzAzDp — max seddon (@maxseddon) March 29, 2022 Meanwhile, the US has issued statements suggesting Russia's military escalation in Ukraine has only continued...

Update (1045ET): Not long after Washington downplayed reports of a Russian drawdown of troops around Kiev and Chernihiv, Interfax reports (citing Russia's top negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky) that the de-escalation doesn't necessarily mean a ceasefire is near.

Update (1030ET): To be expected, it doesn't seem Washington shares in the optimism coming out of the day's concluded Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken commenting negatively on Russian assertions that its military will draw down operations near Kiev and Chernihiv. Blinken while traveling in the Middle East said the US has not seen signs of "real seriousness from Russia" - this after the Pentagon also said it has yet to observe a reduction of fighting from Russian units near Kiev.

Blinken underscored in the fresh comments to reporters that the US and world must focus on "Russia's actions" and "not just what it says" or pledges at the negotiating table. Blinken also urged that Moscow must "end to aggression now" and "pull its forces back" immediately if there is to be progress.

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken says U.S. has not seen signs of real seriousness from Russia. From @humeyra_pamuk , who is travelling with him. — Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 29, 2022 In the scenario that Russia does follow through with its earlier in the day declaration that it will cut military operations around the two named major Ukrainian cities, it's likely to consolidate forces in the east in order to focus on the Donbas region. Russian deputy defense minister said the following Tuesday:

Alexander Fomin said the country has decided to "fundamentally cut back" operations to "increase mutual trust" at talks aimed at ending the fighting.

Within the last days, Russia's military stated it will start limiting the scope of operations to the Donbas, also as Kiev officials have accused the Kremlin of seeking to divide the country into East and West.

Russia analyst Michael Kofman said in the wake of the Istanbul negotiations: "...we are likely to see consolidation around Kyiv and an attempt by the Russian military to fix Ukrainian forces there, while shifting the bulk of available fighting power to Donbas.

Update (0900ET): As markets increasingly hope that a ceasefire deal in Ukraine might finally be at hand, media reports claim that Russia's high command has already started to withdraw forces from around Kiev in what the US believes represents a "major" policy shift.

Breaking: Russia is beginning to withdraw some forces from around the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, in what the US assesses is a “major” strategy shift, two senior US officials tell me. US is already observing movements underway of Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) 1/ — Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) March 29, 2022

2/ In the US view, this is not a short-term adjustment to regroup, but a longer-term move as Russia comes to grips with failure to advance in the north. Russian MOD said Tuesday it has decided to “drastically reduce hostilities” in the Kyiv and Chernihiv directions. — Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) March 29, 2022 Russia has reportedly said it wouldn't mind if the Ukrainians joined the EU, so long as they remain militarily neutral. But whether or not this is a genuine breakthrough remains to be seen.

As the first statements coming off now concluded for the day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks trickle out, both Interfax and Reuters are reporting the potential for a major breakthrough, as Russia's Defense Ministry has said it's seeking to create conditions for dialogue towards halting military activity around the capital of Kiev and major northern city of Chernihiv.

The New York Times suggests this possible overture comes as Russian forces are facing stiff resistance near the capital, as also yesterday Ukraine said it retook the major Kiev suburb of Irpin. "Diplomats from Ukraine and Russia were discussing a possible cease-fire on Tuesday at talks in Turkey, an effort that comes as a Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed back Russian forces in a hard-fought area near Kyiv, the capital," NY Times writes.

The talks were called "constructive" by the Russian top negotiator Vladimir Medinsky, who said he will take Ukraine's proposals for stopping the war directly to Putin, which crucially is centered on a pledge of 'neutrality' vis-a-vis NATO. The meeting, held in Istanbul, lasted four hours.

"The two delegations also discussed international security guarantees for Ukraine, according to Mykhailo Podolyak, an aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine." Negotiations will likely continue Wednesday, according to NY Times: "The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told reporters that the talks, which he said could continue on Wednesday, could be of great consequence, without offering details on the shape of a possible deal." Following this, there've been reports that talks could continue through into the night.

Ukraine's top negotiator said Ukraine is now offering to discuss the Crimea question - and there could be enough substantial agreement on the scope of negotiations to hold a direct Putin-Zelensky meeting, something which Putin has thus far clearly rejected. According to the full quote from the Russian side:

"Due to the fact that negotiations on the preparation of an agreement on the neutrality and non-nuclear status of Ukraine, as well as on the provision of security guarantees to Ukraine, are moving into practice, taking into account the principles discussed during today's meeting, by the Russian Ministry of Defense in order to increase mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiations and achievement of the ultimate goal of agreeing on the signing of the above agreement, a decision was made to radically, at times, reduce military activity in the Kiev and Chernigov direction", Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin told reporters.

And on a possible Putin and Zelensky meeting while implementing terms of agreements, Medinsky further told reporters:

"After today's meaningful conversation, we have agreed and are proposing a solution according to which the meeting of the heads of state is possible simultaneously with the initialing of the treaty by the foreign ministers. Moreover, at the time of this initialing and consideration of the details of the treaty, various political nuances and details can be discussed."

"We have received written proposals from Ukraine confirming their readiness for a neutral, non-aligned and non-nuclear status, along with a refusal to produce and deploy all types of weapons of mass destruction, including chemical and bacteriological ones, and a ban on the presence of foreign military bases and foreign troops on the territory of the country", Medinsky said.

However, for the first time, Medinsky said that such a meeting of presidents is now "possible" - according to statements given to TASS, suggesting that Tuesday's talks appear to be the most substantive so far since the invasion and conflict began.

But one significant future hurdle to anything final leading to a complete cessation of hostilities is that Ukraine has insisted that a national referendum would be needed for any central terms of agreement with Russia - for example on giving up Crimea.

The Ukraine side also reportedly stipulated that it would need "full peace" across the country for any final peace agreement to be deemed in force. Ukraine is further open to keeping neutral status if the peace holds up.

As for a possible halt in fighting near Kiev, the Pentagon issued a quick statement saying it's seen no signs of withdrawal on the part of Russian army units from near the capital, which would likely take some significant time to implement.

On the positive headlines, notes Bloomberg, "Stoxx Europe 600 Index extends gains to 1.8% as Russia decided to cut military activity near Ukraine’s Kyiv, Chernihiv, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin tells briefing after bilateral talks in Istanbul."

“demonstrated that Russia is particularly serious about peace talks and seems to be more of a tactical exercise to play for time”

These people are ludicrously paranoid.

Time is not on Russia’s side.

“Russian Compromise Offers Are “Tactical Exercise To Play For Time”

The same is true of Ukraine, should they choose to go along w/ a lull in hostilities.
Except that such a lull would greatly favor Ukraine, as they are the home team and could use the lull to regroup, make repairs, secure supplies and account for their losses.

But over time, the seething for revenge in the hearts of all Ukrainians won’t end until significant retribution is visited on the Russians, regardless of what form that takes.

As for Putin, he cannot govern his own country, nor any part of Ukraine. I foresee him boarding a helicopter on the top of a building and zipping away to Syria (or some such place). This would be followed closely by masses of citizens storming the government facilities of Russia.

Chaos would then ensue in Russia — a very dangerous situation for the whole world. I think the dice have already been rolled. Whether they stop on snake eyes, boxcars or anything in between, is anybody’s guess.

I understand what you are saying, but not sure how to measure the comparative benefits of a pause for each side. No doubt, both sides are trying to do everything they can to fill up low supplies, acquire more hardware and ordinance, organize combat operations, etc. etc. Why would it not work for Russia as well as Ukraine or better in this regard? Also, doesn’t Russia benefit politically by showing its willingness (real or otherwise) to resolve the matter peacefully?

“I would put that suspicion at about 95% because Putin is ex-KGB and always a player”

They didn’t stop offensive operations because goals were met. They stopped because of 25%+ losses and problems in logistics and weather. Tracked vehicles don’t move well in the mud, and that is what will be until summer. Deep storage facilities, for armor in Russia and clients states, had been raided and the vehicles are not combat ready. Expect when they have combat ready vehicles, weather, that the offensives will restart.

If they doubt Russia's sincerity - put the pressure on to force a deal while the Russians are at the table. instead of sitting around talking, posturing and then doing nothing productive. Both Russia and Ukraine are in over their heads and hurting. There is a window of opportunity to stop this insanity before both sides have regrouped and resupplied. Once they are resupplied and refit, they will be sucked into the restart of what shall become a higher stakes, infinitely more dangerously escalated conflict that may become increasingly difficult to contain to just the Ukraine. While the West vacillates, the window of opportunity to restart spring planting and avert a world wide food emergency closes by the day. If the hostilities restart we may well be facing a spreading and escalating conflict that drives a world wide food crises and the potential for serious famine in the worlds poor and at risk nations.

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