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I price things for a living.

I have 5 separate inflation signals on my screen, with RECENT history expanded as if it continues for a full year. Here are the numbers:

7%
8%
9%
10%
13%

All of them are on a graph and they are all steep lines. If accelleration continues (and why not, fiscal and monetaty policy continues to suck), we should be well into the mid-teens by the end of SUMMER!

Holy Bat Guano!

I purchase source materials that are used in all kinds of industries from health care, beauty, textiles, industrial products, consumer products you name it.

These items are generally cheap. They are input into manufactured goods and resold as finished products or used to finish products (like, say, scotch guard some textile), so consider them part of the “producer price index” or “input cost”. But the prices for them have gone through the roof. Part of it is because a lot of this comes from Asia and there are a number of issues impacting it - there is a palm oil shortage for one, because of an embargo on Indonesia. Of course, all the Indonesians will do is sell them to China or Phillipines or somewhere else, repack it and reship it. But that’s going to add cost. Then there is a container shortage. Used to be to ship a container from Asia to Pacific Coast USA was about $1000. Now, its $5000 and climbing. That is not just because of fuel costs, it’s because they are running out of containers! They ship us so much stuff and the containers just sit here because we don’t have anywhere near as much stuff to ship back. Shippers are loathe to send an empty boatload across the ocean. For low cost low margin goods, that adds a lot. Worse, the higher margin goods like TVs and iPhones are paying shippers to jump the line because they can afford to grease their way in front, but the commodities guys and bulk shippers don’t have so much extra room to pay off the transport schedulers. So you have shortages and lead time problems, demand outstripping supply and thus price increases.

One day I received 2 price increases on the same day. An item that used to cost 78 cents a pound is now costing me $1.26 a pound. That’s small money, but big money considering it is used in just about everything and ships by the tonnage.